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Analysis: Islamic State's 'caliph' leads prayers in Mosul

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The Islamic State has released a video of Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, the group's reclusive emir, leading prayers in the city of Mosul.

In late June, the Islamic State declared that it had established a caliphate with Baghdadi as its ruler. According to his group, Baghdadi is now known as "Caliph Ibrahim."

The group's caliphate declaration has been controversial within jihadist circles. A common critique has been that followers cannot and should not pledge their allegiance to a ruler they haven't even seen. In an era in which images and video are easily disseminated and broadcast, this critique carried some weight. The Islamic State's leader was rarely heard from and never seen. Only a few confirmed photos of Baghdadi existed prior to the newly-released video.

But Baghdadi and the Islamic State have now answered that criticism by posting a significant video of its leader delivering a sermon with a relatively calm and assured delivery.

Baghdadi addresses another criticism of the Islamic State's caliphate without explicitly telling the audience that he is doing so.

Jihadists and other Islamic organizations have dismissed the caliphate because the Islamic State formed it without consulting other recognized authorities. Baghdadi answers this charge by claiming that the jihadists, buoyed by recent victories in Iraq, were simply fulfilling their "duty" to declare a caliphate.

"As for your mujahideen brothers, Allah has bestowed upon them the grace of victory and conquest, and enabled them, after many years of jihad, patience, and fighting the enemies of Allah, and granted them success and empowered them to achieve their goal," Baghdadi says, according to a translation by the SITE Intelligence Group. "Therefore, they hastened to declare the Caliphate and place an imam, and this is a duty upon the Muslims - a duty that has been lost for centuries and absent from the reality of the world and so many Muslims were ignorant of it." Baghdadi concludes, "The Muslims sin by losing it, and they must always seek to establish it, and they have done so, and all praise is due to Allah."

The Islamic State has earned a bloody reputation in Iraq and Syria because the organization is frequently at odds with other jihadist groups, even those that are supposedly its ideological kinsmen. This has opened up Baghdadi and the Islamic State to the charge that declaring the caliphate was merely a self-serving attempt at a power grab.

Baghdadi responds, without recognizing his critics, by portraying himself as a humble servant. "I have been plagued with this great matter, plagued with this responsibility, and it is a heavy responsibility," Baghdadi says, according to SITE. "I was placed as your caretaker, and I am not better than you. So if you found me to be right then help me, and if you found me to be wrong then advise me and make me right and obey me in what I obey Allah through you."

The Islamic State's jihadist critics will surely scoff at Baghdadi's claims. As the infighting between groups has raged in Syria, the Islamic State has refused various peace entreaties from some of the most widely-respected jihadist ideologues. He has shown no desire to be advised by anyone outside of his most trusted inner circle.

The video sends other signals to would-be supporters as well. Baghdadi is secure enough in Mosul, which was seized by a coalition of his forces and its Iraqi allies last month, that he can record a lengthy sermon without fear of being struck down by his enemies. And because he is shown leading prayers, Baghdadi is hoping to convince his audience that he has the proper religious credentials to be a legitimate leader.

The future is, of course, uncertain. It is unknown if the Islamic State will be successful in ruling over its newly-acquired territory, or if it will falter.

But if the group holds onto the fruits of its land grab, then the world has just been given its first look at an aspiring dictator.


Southeast Asian jihadist leader and bomb expert is alive, in Philippines

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Zulkifli bin Hir, a jihadist commander and bomb expert who has worked with three jihadist groups in Southeast Asia and was reported killed by the Philippine military in 2012, is alive and thought to be operating in the southern Philippines.

The deputy chief of Malaysia's Counter Terrorism Division said that Zulkifli, who is a Malaysian citizen, is alive.

"We are aware of reports that said he was killed a few years ago. That is not true. We believe he is hiding in southern Philippines," Datuk Ayob Khan told the Malaysian Chronicle on July 3.

Two years ago, the Philippine Air Force asserted that Zulkifli and 14 other jihadists, including Umbra Jumdail, a senior Abu Sayyaf commander, were killed in an airstrike that targeted a camp in the village of Duyan Kabaw in Parang in the southern province of Sulu on Feb. 2, 2012.

"I am sure because I will not easily issue a statement here," Chief of Staff General Jessie Dellosa, the Philippines' top military commander, confidently said in a press briefing the day of the strike. "We have intelligence people and locals in the area."

But the military never recovered Zulkifli's body.

One indication that Zulkifli survived the strike is that the US State Department's Rewards for Justice Program never removed him from its list of wanted terrorists. A $5 million reward for information leading to his capture and conviction remains in place.

Zulkifli is the second jihadist leader from Southeast Asia to have surfaced after being thought killed in a counterterrorism operation. Abdul Basit Usman, an Abu Sayyaf Group operative and master bombmaker, was reportedly killed in a US drone strike in North Waziristan, Pakistan in 2010. But he has recently been spotted in Mindanao in the southern Philippines.

Zulkifli bin Hir, a.k.a. Zulkifli Abdhir, who goes by a number of aliases, including "Marwan," is "an engineer trained in the United States" and "is thought to be the head of the Kumpulun Mujahidin Malaysia (KMM) terrorist organization and a member of Jemaah Islamiyah's central command," according to Rewards for Justice. He is said to have been sheltering in the Philippines since 2003 and has served as a bomb maker for the Abu Sayyaf Group. All three groups -- KMM, Jemaah Islamiyah, and Abu Sayyaf -- are linked to al Qaeda.

Zulkifli is thought to be sheltering with the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF), a Muslim insurgent group in the southern Philippines that broke off from the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). Members of Jemaah Islamiyah, Abu Sayyaf, and the KMM routinely shelter with and operate alongside other Muslim insurgent groups in the southern Philippines.

Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) is an Islamist terrorist group that seeks to establish a pan-Islamic state across Southeast Asia. While it is most active in Indonesia and the Philippines, Jemaah Islamiyah also conducts operations in Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia. The terror group is al Qaeda's regional affiliate in Southeast Asia, and its operatives have been responsible for devastating attacks in the region, including the 2002 and 2005 Bali bombings, the 2004 suicide car bombing outside the Australian Embassy in Jakarta, the August 2003 car bombing of the JW Marriott hotel in Jakarta, and a series of bombings in Manila.

Jemaah Islamiyah has suffered major setbacks inside Indonesia, with many of its top leaders killed or captured over the past several years. Among them are Dulmatin, a top leader and military commander (killed in 2010); and Noordin Mohammed Top, a senior leader, recruiter, strategist, and fundraiser (killed in 2009). Umar Patek, a top JI leader, was captured in March 2011 in Abbottabad, Pakistan, just months before al Qaeda emir Osama bin Laden was killed in the same city in a US special operations raid. Abu Bakir Bashir, the terror group's founder, is currently in prison for founding, financing, and supporting al Qaeda in Aceh.

The Abu Sayyaf Group is a Philippines-based terrorist and criminal gang formed by fighters who returned from the Afghan jihad against the Soviet Union. The group was funded and financed by Mohammed Jamal Khalifa, one of Osama bin Laden's brother-in-laws, according to Khaddafy Janjalani, the leader of Abu Sayyaf before his death in September 2006. Khalifa, an al Qaeda financier and facilitator, was killed by US special operations forces in Madagascar in January 2007.

Popular Australian cleric arrives in Syria, joins Islamic State

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A screen shot from Musa Cerantonio's Twitter page. The 'map' behind the banner shows the Islands of Mindanao, Jolo, and others in the southern Philippines.

A popular radical Muslim cleric from Australia has joined the newly established Islamic State and traveled to Syria to support the establishment of the caliphate.

Musa Cerantonio, who in the past had renounced his Australian citizenship, announced on his Twitter account that he has "arrived in the land of Khilafah [Caliphate] in Ash-Sham [Syria]!" Cerantonio issued the statement on July 3.

Cerantonio telegraphed his travel to the Middle East. On July 1, Cerantonio announced that he "will be arriving in Ash-Sham very shortly, keep us in your du'a [supplications or prayers], getting ready to travel."

Cerantonio was thought to be hiding in the Philippines since leaving Australia in 2013. The map on the banner of his Twitter page indicates he resided in the southern Philippines, as the island of Mindanao and others are shown. He was likely sheltering with one of several al Qaeda-linked jihadist groups while in the Philippines.

Prior to traveling to Syria, Cerantonio had openly supported the Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham, the name of the Islamic State before it announced the formation of the caliphate on June 29.

Cerantonio traveled to Syria to fulfill the request by the Islamic State for Muslims, especially those with needed skills, to join the caliphate. On July 1, the Islamic State released a statement from Baghdadi in which he "issued 'a special call' to religious workers as well as for 'people with military, administrative, and service expertise, and medical doctors and engineers of all different specializations and fields,'" to come to Iraq and Syria, according to the SITE Intelligence Group.

In the past, Cerantonio served as a propagandist for the group, and dutifully retweeted the group's statements as well as his own supporting the group and its recent advances in Iraq. He has also called for the death of Western leaders.

He praised "the establishment of the Khilafah" and said the formation of the Islamic State "is a glad tiding for all Muslims and brings great joy to us."

"May Allah bless and protect our Imam, our Amir, our Khalifah, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi," he said on July 1, just before he began traveling to Syria.

The Australian cleric "relies on his effective use of social media networks to propagate support for a world-wide jihad against the West and encourage Muslims to join the ISIS in Syria and Iraq," according to the Terrorism Research & Analysis Consortium, or TRAC. He is considered to be a popular figure in jihadist circles.

"A study conducted during early 2014 by the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation concluded that one in four foreign fighters followed Cerantonio's Twitter account and that his Facebook page was the third-most 'liked' page among jihadists," TRAC continued.

Cerantonio is the third cleric from Australia to travel to Syria to support the jihadist cause. Abu Sulayman al Muhajir, a firebrand cleric while in Australia, is currently a senior sharia (Islamic law) official in the Al Nusrah Front, al Qaeda's official branch in Syria, which is a rival of the Islamic State. Abu Sulayman has been critical of the Islamic State in the past.

Mustapha al Majzoub, a dual Australian and Syrian citizen who resided in Sydney before traveling to Syria, was killed in a rocket attack in Aleppo on Aug. 19, 2012. According to jihadists, Majzoub was known for his efforts to recruit fighters from Australia, and had gone to Syria in June to "join the resistance alongside jihadi Salafis."

AQAP praises Ayman al Zawahiri, defends jihadist scholars against 'slander'

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Nasir al Wuhayshi, who is both the emir of AQAP and the general manger of al Qaeda's global operations, released a poem praising Ayman al Zawahiri as the "Sheikh father."

Leaders in al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) released two messages in early July. The first, from AQAP emir Nasir al Wuhayshi, heaps praise on al Qaeda head Ayman al Zawahiri, calling him the "sheikh father" of the mujahideen. The second, a video starring two leading AQAP ideologues, appears to be a critique of the Islamic State and its supporters.

Al Qaeda members online view the two messages as replies to recent claims made by the Islamic State, which declared in late June that it is a caliphate and its leader, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, is now to be known as "Caliph Ibrahim." The Islamic State's caliphate announcement was a direct challenge to al Qaeda's and Zawahiri's authority among jihadists.

Wuhayshi's tribute to Zawahiri is in the form of a poem, which was accompanied by a jihadist anthem. Both the poem and the anthem were posted online on a twitter feed (@bashaer_Audio) that releases AQAP audio productions.

"He carried the flag in his youth, middle age, and old age and till this very day he continues to hold fast to it," Wuhayshi says of Zawahiri. The AQAP head goes on to describe Zawahiri as a "skillful teacher, seasoned veteran, and expert commander," who "was nursed by wisdom and reveled in it." Zawahiri "was taught by wars" and "is the second wise man of jihad," with Osama bin Laden presumably being the first. Zawahiri "is the apple of the eyes of mujahideen of this time" and "the theorist of the jihadist movement, its orator" and its "Sheikh father."

In addition to serving as AQAP's emir, Wuhayshi was named al Qaeda's general manager in the summer of 2013. The position gives Wuhayshi, who served as bin Laden's aide-de-camp prior to the 9/11 attacks, broad power across al Qaeda's international network.

AQAP video denounces "slander" of jihadist leaders

The AQAP video was released shortly after Wuhayshi's poem and features a pair of leading ideologues, Harith bin Ghazi al Nadhari and Ibrahim al Rubaish. The production is entitled, "Responsibility of the Word." Both men defend the reputations of unnamed jihadist "scholars" and warn against "slandering" them. Although they don't mention specific events, it appears that the AQAP ideologues are addressing the vicious infighting between the Islamic State and its rivals in Syria.

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A video starring Ibrahim al Rubaish (left) and Harith bin Ghazi al Nadhari (right) decries the "slandering" of experienced jihadist leaders.

"The flesh of the scholars is poisoned ... so backbiting the scholars, the people of favor and goodness, contains much evil," Nadhari warns, according to a translation by the SITE Intelligence Group. "Devaluing the people of goodness and righteousness, and the people of knowledge and favor, is not from the teachings of Islam," Nadhari continues. "Among the teachings of Islam is to dignify the Muslim with gray hair: he has nothing, he has done nothing, and he is just a faithful Muslim. Although he is not from the people of favor, to dignify this good man, this faithful man, because he grew up with Islam, is among teachings of the religion."

Nadhari goes on to describe this unnamed man as having "gray hair" and being "very old," and as having "a lot of experience." The description could easily apply to Zawahiri, as well as to other leading jihadist thinkers who have been critical of the Islamic State's unilateral claims to power. "So respecting the ranks of those people and their positions is a great matter and it is from the teachings of Islam," Nadhari concludes.

Rubaish echoes Nadhari's warning. "Instead of sanctifying the scholars, disrespecting the scholars is found, and slandering them, and speaking badly about them for whatever reason, even in disputes," Rubaish says, according to SITE's translation. "This is among the calamities" experienced by jihadists today, Rubaish says. "We are not talking about the evil scholars who are known for supporting the tyrants, but those scholars who we consider and Allah knows them better, to be pious and to be those who speak the truth aloud."

Rubaish blasts jihadists who restrict "the religion ... to certain issues," making "those who concur" with them "loyalists and brothers," while disavowing those who disagree.

Nadhari is an increasingly important jihadist thinker. In addition to having his work promoted by AQAP, Nadhari's writings have been featured in Nawa-e-Afghan Jihad ("Voice of the Afghan Jihad"), a magazine that publishes the works of top al Qaeda leaders and their closest allies. The July edition of the magazine included a piece from Nadhari on "ideology and teachings."

Rubaish is a former Guantanamo detainee. During his time in custody in Cuba, American officials identified him as an al Qaeda member. Rubaish was transferred to his native Saudi Arabia in December 2006 and entered into a jihadist rehabilitation program before being released. By late 2009, Rubaish was publicly identified as one of AQAP's leading theologians.

Praise for AQAP's messages from al Qaeda members on Twitter

The AQAP leaders do not explicitly mention the Islamic State or its leader, let alone condemn him. But the messages were quickly trumpeted on Twitter by the Islamic State's rivals in the Al Nusrah Front, which is al Qaeda's official branch in Syria.

Among the Al Nusrah Front officials who tweeted or retweeted the AQAP messages are Abu Sulayman al Muhajir and Sami al Uraydi, both of whom are senior sharia officials in the group. Abu Sulayman and Uraydi have been engaged in a heated war of words with their Islamic State counterparts.

Other al Qaeda-linked jihadists on Twitter praised the messages from AQAP as well.

On the other hand, Mamoun Hatim, an AQAP ideologue who has long supported the Islamic State, disapproved of the video featuring Nadhari and Rubaish. In a series of tweets, Hatim wondered if his comrades had witnessed the Islamic State's gains in Iraq.


Oren Adaki, a research associate and Arabic language specialist at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, contributed to this article.

Taliban seize district in central Afghanistan, launch suicide assault in Kandahar

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The Taliban launched two major attacks in central and southern Afghanistan today, overrunning a provincial center in Ghor province and launching a suicide assault on government buildings in the capital of Kandahar.

In the central Afghan province of Ghor, the Taliban overran the Char Sada district center in an attack that included upwards of 300 fighters, according to Afghan officials. The remote district is said to be under Taliban control, but it is unclear if the Taliban plan to occupy it for an extended period of time.

In a statement released on Voice of Jihad, the Taliban claimed the fighting lasted for eight hours before their forces had "successfully overrun" Char Sada. The Taliban reported that "10 puppets," or Afghan security personnel, were "killed and dozens wounded as well as 6 vehicles packed with equipment seized." One Taliban fighter was also "martyred." The Taliban's claims could not be verified.

A Taliban commander known as Mullah Mustafa also is known to operate in Ghor. The International Security Assistance Force said in 2009 that Mustafa commands more than 100 fighters and receives support from Iran's Qods Force. ISAF thought it killed Mustafa in a June 9, 2009, airstrike in a rural area in Ghor. Mustafa later spoke to the media and denied reports of his death.

Mustafa was last spotted in January 2013, when he and Mullah Abdul Rahamn, the Taliban's shadow district governor for Char Sada, ordered the beating of a couple for having an affair.

Char Sada is the second district in Afghanistan reported to have fallen under Taliban control over the past several weeks. At the end of June, the Taliban took control of Sangin district in Helmand province, and launched attacks in the neighboring districts of Now Zad, Musa Qala, and Kajaki. More than 1,000 Taliban fighters massed for the assault in Helmand.

Suicide assault in Kandahar repelled

In the provincial capital of Kandahar, the Taliban launched a coordinated suicide assault that targeted the governor's compound and police headquarters. Three suicide bombers detonated their explosives while 19 more heavily armed fighters engaged in a firefight with Afghan forces from nearby buildings for more than an hour, TOLONews reported.

Afghan officials said that 22 Taliban fighters, four policemen, and five civilians were killed during the fighting. Kandahar's chief of police claimed that Pakistanis may have been fighting in the ranks of the Taliban.

The Taliban claimed today's attack in Kandahar City, and described it as a "synchronized double martyrdom attack" in a statement released on their website, Voice of Jihad. The group claimed that 11 fighters were involved in the attack on the police headquarters, and another seven in the assault on the governor's building.

Today's suicide assault in Kandahar is the third suicide operation executed by the Taliban in the past three days. Yesterday, the Taliban killed 16 people, including four Czech soldiers, in a suicide attack in Parwan province. And on July 7, a suicide bomber killed three soldiers in an attack on a bus in Herat province.

Al Qaeda ally calls for statement on Islamic State's caliphate

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Hani al Sibai, an ideologue who is highly respected within al Qaeda, has called on al Qaeda's senior leadership and the group's regional branches to address the Islamic State's announced caliphate. Sibai has long been a critic of the Islamic State. And he doesn't think al Qaeda's quiet response to the group's attempted power grab within the jihadist world is sufficient.

"The silence of #Khorasan_leadership and its branches regarding the announcement of the new caliphate is not wise," Sibai wrote in Arabic in a tweet on July 8. The jihadists' Khorasan is a geographic area that includes Afghanistan and Pakistan, where al Qaeda's senior leadership is based.

Sibai's tweet continues: "Suggestions and innuendoes will not do! An explicit...statement is necessary, for this intense issue is mighty."

Sibai's tweet was quickly retweeted by al Qaeda supporters and at least one official in the Al Nusrah Front, al Qaeda's official branch in Syria. The Al Nusrah Front has been fighting with the Islamic State for months.

Thus far, neither al Qaeda's leadership, nor any of its formal branches (often called affiliates), has responded to the Islamic State's announcement that it now ruled over a caliphate, with Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, the group's leader, serving as "Caliph Ibrahim."

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) released two messages just days later, including one that heaped praise on Zawahiri. Sibai retweeted both of AQAP's messages, but the organization made no mention of the Islamic State or Baghdadi in either of them. And al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) also released a message praising the jihadists' advances in Iraq and calling for reconciliation in Syria, but that statement was written before the Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham (ISIS) rebranded itself as the Islamic State and announced its caliphate.

Ayman al Zawahiri has known and trusted Sibai for decades. So when Sibai talks, Zawahiri listens.

In April, Sibai was one of the several leading jihadists who called on Zawahiri to address specific aspects of al Qaeda's ongoing dispute with the ISIS/Islamic State.

A few weeks later, in early May, Zawahiri responded by releasing a new message, "Testimonial to Preserve the Blood of Mujahideen in al Sham." Although Zawahiri had addressed the infighting between the Islamic State and its jihadist rivals a number of times before and he was "content" with his previous testimony, Zawahiri said he decided to broach the topic once more because of his respect for the "venerable" Sibai. In a three-page document released in late May, Zawahiri again cited the request from Sibai, as well as other jihadists, as the reason why he decided to discuss events in Syria.

It remains to be seen if and when al Qaeda addresses the Islamic State's claims. Al Qaeda's propaganda arm, As Sahab, announced the same day as Sibai's tweet (July 8) that it was releasing three new productions. Judging by their titles, the three messages do not explicitly address recent events in Iraq. One is a message from deceased al Qaeda master Osama bin Laden. The second is part of Zawahiri's ongoing "Days with the Imam" series, which reviews bin Laden's life. The third stars two "martyred" jihadists discussing the Arab revolutions that began in 2011. The content of the three productions may have some historical bearing on the situation, however.

Sibai, like some other pro-al Qaeda jihadists, initially praised the Islamic State's gains in Iraq in June. In one tweet, Sibai used the hashtag "#Liberation_of_Mosul." Sibai's tweet reads, "The joy of controlling the city should not make us forget that the enemy is plotting and will not hesistate to bomb it with planes."

"I wonder who has been wounded with sadness due to the ongoing news about the liberation of #Mosul," Sibai wrote in another tweet. "[T]his day is a critical and gloomy day for the Shi'ites and the rulers who have given up the Gulf states to [Iranian leader] Khamenei."

In a third tweet written in June, Sibai said that if the ISIS "breaks its blockade on #Deir_Ezzor and moves to reinforce its forces in Mosul or to the war against the butcher Bashar [al Assad] and his paramilitary that would be the best for the elderly Muslims." The ISIS, now known as the Islamic State, has been fighting the Al Nusrah Front and other groups in Deir Ezzor. Sibai, therefore, was hoping that the Islamic State would leave the fight against its fellow jihadists in eastern Syria to focus on Assad's regime in Syria and Maliki's government in Iraq. The Islamic State continued to fight its jihadist rivals in Syria, however, and even gained ground.

Sibai's praise for the Islamic State's military advances in Iraq was short-lived, as he soon returned to criticizing the group. And he has now invited al Qaeda to do the same and criticize the Islamic State's caliphate.


Oren Adaki, a research associate and Arabic language specialist at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, contributed to this article.

US drone strike kills 6 'militants' in North Waziristan

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The US launched its first drone strike inside Pakistan's tribal agencies in more than three weeks, killing six "militants" in an area that in the past has served as a command and control center for al Qaeda's military.

Today's drone strike, which was carried out by the remotely piloted Predators or the more deadly Reapers, struck a compound and a vehicle in the village of Doga Mada Khel in the Datta Khel area of North Waziristan.

The identities of the six militants were not disclosed. No senior Taliban, al Qaeda, or other jihadist leaders or operatives have been reported killed.

The Datta Khel area, where today's strike took place, is administered by Hafiz Gul Bahadar, the Taliban commander for North Waziristan. Bahadar provides shelter to top al Qaeda leaders as well as terrorists from numerous Pakistani and Central Asian terror groups.

Datta Khel is a known hub of Taliban, Haqqani Network, and al Qaeda activity. While Bahadar administers the region, the Haqqani Network, al Qaeda, and allied Central Asian jihadist groups are also based in the area. The Lashkar al Zil, al Qaeda's Shadow Army, is known to operate a command center in Datta Khel. Some of al Qaeda's top leaders, including Mustafa Abu Yazid, a longtime al Qaeda leader and close confidant of Osama bin Laden and Ayman al Zawahiri; Abdullah Said al Libi, the commander of the Shadow Army; and Zuhaib al Zahibi, a general in the Shadow Army; have been killed in drone strikes in Datta Khel.

Today's strike is the first in Pakistan since June 18. The US launched three strikes in North Waziristan in June. Prior to the three strikes, the last US attack took place in late December 2013. The US put the program on hold after the Pakistani government entered into peace talks with the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan. US intelligence officials have told The Long War Journal that there was no shortage of al Qaeda and other terrorists to target during the six-month lull. [See LWJ report, US launches 2 drone strikes in Pakistan, breaks 6-month lull.]

Today's strike also coincides with Operation Zarb-e-Azb, the Pakistani military offensive in North Waziristan. The military claims it has killed more than 400 "terrorists" and "foreigners," and zero civilians, during a series of airstrikes in North Waziristan. The Pakistani military also asserts that most of those killed are from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and the Turkistan Islamic Party, two regional jihadist groups with close ties to al Qaeda. The Pakistani military claims to have cleared 80 percent of Miramshah, the main town in North Waziristan. But most of the jihadists in North Waziristan are thought to have fled the offensive long before it began.

The Pakistani military appears to be focusing on foreign terrorist groups as well as the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, and is not confronting the Haqqani Network or the Hafiz Gul Bahadar group. These two independent Taliban factions are considered "good Taliban" as they do not openly advocate attacking the Pakistan state. But the Haqqanis and the Bahadar group, the two most powerful Taliban factions in North Waziristan, shelter and support al Qaeda, IMU, TIP, and the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan (the "bad Taliban"). [See LWJ report, Pakistan launches 'comprehensive operation against foreign and local terrorists' in North Waziristan, and Threat Matrix report, Pakistani forces focus on 'foreigners' in North Waziristan operation.]

Taliban calls for reconciliation in Syria, avoids mentioning Islamic State's caliphate

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The Taliban has released a statement calling on rival jihadist factions in Syria to reconcile. The Taliban avoids any mention of the Islamic State, which recently decreed that it now rules as a caliphate, even though the organization is at the center of the jihadists' infighting.

The statement, published in Arabic on one of the group's websites as a "weekly analysis," was first obtained and translated by the SITE Intelligence Group.

Instead, the Taliban calls for the creation of a common shura council capable of mediating the differences between the warring insurgent groups in Syria. Al Qaeda's senior leadership has repeatedly encouraged the jihadists to settle their differences in this manner, but the Islamic State has rejected all attempts at mediation.

The Taliban's silence with respect to the Islamic State's announced caliphate is interesting because the claims made by Abu Bakr al Baghdadi's group can be read as a challenge to the authority of all other jihadist entities.

"We clarify to the Muslims that with this declaration of the caliphate, it is incumbent upon all Muslims to pledge allegiance to the Caliph Ibrahim and support him," the Islamic State's announcement on June 29 reads. "The legality of all emirates, groups, states, and organizations, becomes null by the expansion of the caliphate's authority and arrival of its troops to their areas."

Given that the Taliban considers itself to be a regional emirate (or state), the Islamic State's claim could be viewed as an attempted power grab, even if only a rhetorical one, with its imagined caliphate ruling over the Taliban's emirate and all other jihadist parties. The Taliban, of course, would never agree to such an arrangement. But the Islamic State's critics have already questioned if this is what Baghdadi and his followers intend.

For instance, Abu Muhammad al Maqdisi, a highly influential jihadist ideologue, has already questioned where the Taliban fits in the Islamic State's schema. In a statement in early July, Maqdisi criticized the Islamic State's announcement.

Maqdisi pointed out that the Taliban long ago announced the creation of its regional emirate, "which was truly founded on the land for years," and that Mullah Omar "is still fighting the enemies, he with his soldiers." Maqdisi asked, "So what is the destiny of this [Taliban] emirate to those who speak in the name of the caliphate today and announced it?"

Maqdisi made the same point with respect to the Islamic Caucasus Emirate, an al Qaeda-affiliated group that claims to be a regional emirate and technically would be just one part of the Islamic State's announced caliphate.

The Taliban avoided any discussion of this issue. Instead, Mullah Omar's organization echoed previous calls for unity. However, while the Taliban does not explicitly criticize the Islamic State, parts of its message are almost certainly pointed in Baghdadi's direction.

"The Muslims also should avoid extremism in religion, and judging others without evidence, and distrusting one another," SITE's translation of the Taliban's statement reads. Of course, it is ironic to see the Taliban decry "extremism." But jihadist critics of the Islamic State frequently accuse the group of being too extreme due to its ultra-strict interpretation of sharia law and unwillingness to compromise with its ideological kin.

Al Qaeda has repeatedly said that an independent sharia court should be established to adjudicate between the rival jihadist groups in Syria. Even though the Islamic State has made it clear that it has no intention of submitting to such a court, the Taliban makes a similar recommendation.

"The Muslims should submit to the rules of Islamic sharia and comply with them," the Taliban says. "It is worthy for a shura [consultation] council to be formed from the leaders of all the jihadi factions and the distinguished people among the experts and the scholars in Sham in order to solve their conflicts in light of opinions and joint consultations."

Ayman al Zawahiri called for the establishment of a common sharia court in Syria as recently as late May. Earlier statements from the al Qaeda emir included the same proposal.


Leaked audio features Al Nusrah Front emir discussing creation of an Islamic emirate

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A leaked recording of Abu Muhammad al Julani, the emir of the Al Nusrah Front, giving an impassioned speech to his fighters surfaced online late yesterday.

While the audio appears to be a real recording of Julani, The Long War Journal has not independently confirmed its authenticity. The original leak was quickly taken down, but other versions, including shorter clips, remain online. One such clip is included at the beginning of this article.

The recording was not released through the Al Nusrah Front's official propaganda channels.

Julani discusses the creation of an Islamic emirate (or state), in Syria, telling his fighters that their sacrifices on the battlefield will not be squandered.

"The time has come ... for us to establish an Islamic emirate in the Levant, to implement the limits and punishments of God Almighty, and his laws in every sense of the word, without compromise, complacency, equivocation, or circumvention," Julani says, according to Al-Akhbar.

The group will now fully implement sharia law in the areas under its control, Julani says, and both the group's fighters and its leaders will be held accountable by the newly-established courts.

Julani tells his audience that the Al Nusrah Front will be restructured, with its forces being divided into new units and younger commanders assuming leadership positions. Julani cites recent problems the Al Nusrah Front has encountered, including members fleeing the fight without permission. Julani has also appointed a jihadist known as Abu Qatada al Albani as the new head of his organization's military forces, and he tells his audience that they must obey him.

The Islamic State's gains in Iraq since June, as well as the group's announcement that it now rules as a caliphate, hangs over Julani throughout his talk.

Julani's Al Nusrah Front, which is al Qaeda's official branch in Syria, has been at odds since last year with the Islamic State, an al Qaeda offshoot. Julani formerly served as a lieutenant to Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, the Islamic State's emir, who is now called "Caliph Ibrahim."

Julani says the Islamic State's caliphate is invalid and arose out of the infighting between jihadist groups. "A caliphate based on destroying a jihadi project that the nation has been dreaming of since 1,400 years, and a caliphate built by those who helped the [Assad] regime fight against you, is an invalid caliphate even if they declare it a thousand times," Julani says, according to Al-Akhbar.

Julani claims that the Al Nusrah Front has lost more than $1 billion to the Islamic State and others. And the Islamic State's ability to gain the upper hand in other ways in recent months has caused Julani to alter his plans for the Syrian conflict.

Baghdadi's group is known for its uncompromising approach to enforcing an incredibly harsh version of sharia law. The Al Nusrah Front, which ultimately wants to implement similar laws, has taken a more stepwise approach to governance. Local populations have repeatedly rejected the sharia laws enforced by al Qaeda's branches throughout the Middle East and Africa. The Al Nusrah Front's approach took into account this liability by attempting to ease Syrians into al Qaeda's dark vision of society.

Therefore, Julani's promise to mete out punishments in full accordance with sharia law may reflect a shift in the group's thinking. New sharia courts will be set up within one week, Julani says, and he will also be subject to them. This is likely intended as a criticism of his rival Baghdadi, who has rejected any religious authority other than his group's own top-down rulings.

Julani's frank discussion of his group's military problems reflects the fact that the Al Nusrah Front has lost ground to the Islamic State in eastern Syria. But the Islamic State is not Julani's only enemy.

His envisioned emirate is opposed to not only the Islamic State, but also Bashar al Assad's regime, Kurdish forces, and other rebel groups that refuse to accept al Qaeda-style rule.

Julani takes aim at the US as well, saying that it is weak and cannot afford to invade Syria with ground forces. And he seeks to capitalize on recent events in Israel and Gaza, saying that his army will eventually strike the Jews.

Another speaker featured in the recording is identified as Abu Firas al Shami, an al Qaeda veteran who appeared in an Al Nusrah Front video in March. Although Abu Firas was little known until his video debut, the Al Nusrah Front revealed that he has an extensive dossier stretching back decades. In addition to working directly for Osama bin Laden, the Al Nusrah Front claimed that Abu Firas helped found Lashkar-e-Taiba, the al Qaeda-linked Pakistan jihadist group.

According to some accounts, Sheikh Abdallah Muhammad al Muhaysini, a popular al Qaeda-linked cleric from Saudi Arabia, was in attendance for the speech. Muhaysini is reportedly helping Julani reorganize the Al Nusrah Front's efforts. Muhaysini does not speak in the recording, however.

The audience's loyalty to al Qaeda is obvious in the recording. Julani's fighters can be heard chanting, "We are all al Qaeda! We are all Osama! We are all [Ayman al Zawahiri]! We are all Julani!"

Islamic State routs Iraqi armored column in Anbar

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Iraqi and Syrian towns and cities seized by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham and its allies. Map created by The Long War Journal. Click to view larger map.


Fighters from the newly established Islamic State ambushed and destroyed an Iraqi armored column in the western province of Anbar. Islamic State fighters also captured several American-made armored personnel carriers. The ambush highlights the deteriorating state of the Iraqi security forces.

The Islamic State's Anbar Wilayat (division or province) released a series of photographs on its Twitter account on July 10 that document the ambush of an Iraqi armored column and the aftermath of the attack [photographs below].

According to the statements from the Anbar Wilayat, the Iraqi Army convoy was attacked in the Khalidiyah area in Anbar province. Although the exact date of the ambush was not provided, the Anbar Wilayat typically publishes photographs of attacks within days of carrying them out.

Several photos show Islamic State fighters opening fire on the convoy as it drives on a dirt road in a rural area of Khalidiyah. The Islamic State fighters appear to detonate one or more IEDs, or roadside bombs, on the armored column that includes US made and donated M1A1 Abrams main battle tanks and M113 armored personnel carriers. At least three M1A1s and nine M113s can be identified in the photographs.

At least one tank and two M113s are shown while on fire. One of the Abrams tanks appears to be half buried in a ditch.

The Iraqi soldiers appear to have abandoned the convoy after it was ambushed. The Islamic State only displayed one body of an Iraqi soldier, who appears to have been burned.

Islamic State fighters are photographed on top of the vehicles after the battle. At least two of the M113 armored personnel carriers appear to be operational. An Islamic State fighter is shown driving one of them across a field and toward some homes in the area.

Islamic State consolidating its grip on Anbar

Khalidiyah is located outside of the city of Habbaniyah and near the Al Taqaddum military base. Khalidiyah, which was a bastion for al Qaeda in Iraq up until early 2007, is also halfway between the cities of Ramadi and Fallujah. Ramadi, the provincial capital of Anbar, is currently contested as the Islamic State is reported to control some neighborhoods in the city. Fallujah, the nearby dam, and Karma and Abu Ghraib are currently under the control of the Islamic State and its tribal allies.

The Islamic State controls most of Anbar province. West of Haditha, the Islamic State runs the towns of Anah, Rawa, and the border town of Al Qaim. The jihadist group also controls the far-flung towns of Rutbah and Nukhaib. The status of the Tarbil border crossing to Jordan and the Al Walid crossing to Syria is undetermined. Although there are reports that local tribes assumed control of the crossings, the Islamic State has displayed photographs of its fighters at the crossings.

The Iraqi military previously had two divisions, the 1st and the 7th, deployed in Anbar, but most of these forces have withered since the Islamic State took control of Fallujah in January and extended its control throughout the province. Many Iraqi soldiers are thought to have deserted; the exact number is not known, however. One estimate puts the number of overall desertions for the Iraqi Army at over 90,000. The Iraqi military has not released information on the number of soldiers killed and wounded since the Islamic State launched its offensive in mid-June.

The leadership of the 7th Division crumbled in later December 2013 after an Islamic State suicide team killed the division commander and 17 members of his staff in an ambush in Rutbah.

The situation in Ramadi has become so dire that the Iraqi government is deploying 4,000 members of the newly raised militias, who are primarily Shias, to an area that is overwhelmingly Sunni. The militia members are being "ferried out to Ramadi from Baghdad by helicopter," ABC News reported, demonstrating how thoroughly the Islamic State controls the road from Baghdad to Ramadi.

Since launching the second phase of its operation to control territory in Iraq on June 10, the Islamic State took control of Ninewa province, to include Mosul, Iraq's second largest city, most of Salahaddin province, and areas in Diyala province. Additionally, the Islamic State has been waging an offensive in northern Babil province in the area known as the Triangle of Death, and is said to be in control of several areas, including Jufr al Sakhar. The Islamic State is seeking to take over the belt area around Baghdad, and squeeze the capital and make it ungovernable. [See LWJ report, Analysis: ISIS, allies reviving 'Baghdad belts' battle plan.]

The Iraqi government has largely halted the Islamic State's southward advance outside of Samarra, which is just north of Baghdad. Thousands of Iranian-supported Shia militiamen from Asaib al Haq, Hezbollah Brigades, and Muqtada al Sadr's Peace Brigade are currently deployed between the road from Baghdad to Samarra. Iraqi military and national police units are nowhere to be found on the road, according to The New York Times.

While the Shia militias have helped the Iraqi government slow the Islamic State's advance toward Baghdad, they has been ineffective so far in helping to retake ground lost to the group. The Iraqi military's attempt to retake the city of Tikrit, the provincial capital of Salahaddin which is just north of Samarra, has so far stalled since it was launched at the end of June.

The Islamic State's territory spans both Iraq and Syria. In Syria, the Islamic State controls Raqqah, much of Deir al Zour, and areas in Aleppo and Hasakah provinces.

Photographs from the ambush of an Iraqi Army armored column in Khalidiyah

An Iraqi Army M1A1 Abrams main battle tank is hit by what appears to be an IED:

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An Islamic State fighter manning a machine gun observes as the Iraqi Army armored column is ambushed in Khalidiyah:

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Armored vehicles in the column are ablaze:

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An M1A1 tank is on fire:

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Islamic State fighters stand on top of an M1A1 tank:

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Another M1A1 tank is half buried in a ditch as Islamic State fighters stand on top of it:

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A column of abandoned M113 armored personnel carriers:

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The Islamic State captured what appears to be two intact M113 armored personnel carriers:

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An Islamic State fighter drives away in an M113:

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Al Nusrah Front issues 'clarification' on the creation of an Islamic emirate

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The Al Nusrah Front, al Qaeda's official branch in Syria, has issued a short statement denying that the group has announced the creation of an Islamic emirate (or state). The group has posted the message online in both Arabic and English.

The statement is a "clarification" and was released in response to a leaked audio recording that was disseminated online just hours before. The audio is allegedly a recording of a fiery speech by Abu Muhammad al Julani, the Al Nusrah Front's leader. "The time has come ... for us to establish an Islamic emirate in the Levant," Julani says during the speech.

The leaked recording was not an official production of the Al Nusrah Front, nor was it a formal announcement. But Julani's words were widely interpreted within the online jihadist community to mean that the group would be announcing the creation of an Islamic emirate soon.

"We ... strive to establish an Islamic Emirate according to the regarded Islamic [Sunnah]," the newly-released statement reads. "We have not announced the establishment of an Emirate, yet. When the time comes and the sincere Mujahideen and the pious scholars agree with our stance, we will announce this Emirate, by the Will of Allah."

Thus, the Al Nusrah Front says that it will seek to build a consensus among jihadists before establishing an Islamic emirate. This is in contrast to the Al Nusrah Front's rival, the Islamic State, which unilaterally declared in late June that it now rules as a caliphate covering parts of both Iraq and Syria. One of the jihadists' main objections to the Islamic State is that the group refuses to consult with other organizations and share power.

The Al Nusrah Front does not deny that the leaked audio is a recording of Julani's speech. And parts of the organization's statement are actually consistent with what Julani told his audience.

"We strive to rule by Shariah [Islamic law] by establishing Islamic Courts, Security Offices and offering general services to the Muslims within the next ten days," the statement reads. In his purported speech, Julani said his group would establish new sharia courts within one week.

The statement continues, "We will not allow anyone to pick the fruits of this Jihad and establish a secular scheme, or any other scheme, which takes advantage of the sacrifices of the Mujahideen and is established on their blood." This, too, was a theme in Julani's speech. The Al Nusrah Front head said he would not allow his fighters' sacrifices on the battlefield to be squandered such that other groups, including the Islamic State, benefit at their expense.

The perception that the Al Nusrah Front was moving to create an Islamic emirate had the potential to cause rifts between Julani's forces and their allies in other rebel groups, which may not share all of the Al Nusrah Front's beliefs. The newly-released statement seeks to allay these concerns as Julani's group says it "will not hesitate to deal [militarily] with the corrupt groups in the liberated areas," but this "will be done by cooperation with the sincere groups [Mujahideen]."

The Al Nusrah Front "is determined to unify ranks to face the dangers which threaten the Jihadi front [in Syria], whether these threats are from the Nusayri [Bashar al Assad's] Regime or from the group of Khawarij and ghulaat (extremists)." The latter is a reference to the Islamic State and its emir, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, who now claims to rule as "Caliph Ibrahim."

Jihadists frequently use the words Khawarij and ghulaat to describe the Islamic State, as these words refer to Muslims who hold beliefs considered too extreme for most other Muslims. Of course, the Al Nusrah Front adheres to an extremist ideology as well.

AQIM rejects Islamic State's caliphate, reaffirms allegiance to Zawahiri

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This image is taken from Ansar al Sharia Tunisia's Facebook page, which reposted AQIM's statement rejecting the Islamic State's caliphate.


Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has purportedly released a statement rejecting the Islamic State's caliphate. And the group rejects the Islamic State's demand that all jihadists now swear bayat (or allegiance) to Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, the self-proclaimed new caliph.

We "confirm that we still adhere to our pledge of allegiance to our sheikh and emir, Ayman al Zawahiri, since it is a Sharia-accorded pledge of allegiance that remains hanging on our necks, and we do not see what requires use to break it," AQIM's statement reads.

The message was first obtained and translated by the SITE Intelligence Group, which notes that it was posted on Twitter feeds that have not yet been authenticated by AQIM. The al Qaeda branch has operated multiple official Twitter feeds in the past, but they have taken down. AQIM has not confirmed that the new Twitter sites that released the statement are, in fact, official. If the statement is not genuine, then we can expect AQIM to say so in short order.

The statement is attributed to AQIM's official propaganda arm, the Al Andalus Foundation for Media Production, which is the only body authorized to disseminate AQIM's messages. And other jihadist groups have reposted the statement, which indicates that jihadists consider it authentic. In particular, Ansar al Sharia Tunisia, a jihadist organization that is affiliated with AQIM, reposted the message on its official Facebook page.

The message attributed to AQIM begins by noting the jihadists' infighting in Syria, where the Islamic State has warred against its rivals, including the Al Nusrah Front, which is an official branch of al Qaeda. "We were silent throughout this period, not for our inability to speak or a shortcoming on our part, but fearing that our talk will be fuel for the fire of the burning sedition," AQIM says. The organization feared that "the enemies of the Muslims would take advantage of our words and transform them into a strike against a sect of the mujahideen, in a time when we hope to heal the rift and dissipate the plight."

Next, AQIM reveals an interesting detail that was not publicly known. The al Qaeda branch apparently tried to help mediate the jihadists' feud in private. "It is not enough to have hope and be silent, so we sought in efforts to mend the conditions in secret, together with our brothers in the other jihadi fronts, in our belief that the disputes of the mujahideen should be resolved in secret, away from the ears and eyes of lurking enemy media."

Other al Qaeda parties, including veteran jihadists dispatched by al Qaeda's senior leadership to Syria, have assisted in the mediation efforts as well. And in an audio message recorded in late February, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) said that it had "sought reconciliation between the mujahideen" and was "still trying our best in it." So, accepting the group's words at face value, AQIM joined this international coalition in attempting to resolve the ongoing dispute.

Those efforts failed, leading al Qaeda's general command to disown the group now known as the Islamic State in early February. And in late June, after making advances in Iraq alongside allied organizations, the Islamic State declared itself a caliphate. This was a direct challenge to the authority of Ayman al Zawahiri and al Qaeda's senior leadership.

AQIM rejects the Islamic State's caliphate, however. The al Qaeda group says while it too wants to resurrect the caliphate, the Islamic State has not followed the appropriate protocols.

"The establishment of the rightly-guided Caliphate ... is the effort of every honest mujahid, and all organizations and known jihadi groups in their honest and the correctness of their method, strived and exerted their selves, and spilled blood, and spent money in the cause," AQIM says, according to SITE's translation.

"It is obvious for the Muslims and all jihadi organizations that follow the correct method, that the announcement of such a serious step (meaning the establishment of the Caliphate), will not happen but after the expansion of consultation," AQIM's statement continues.

Coordination with other jihadist groups and Islamic scholars is considered to be a crucial step in establishing the caliphate. But the Islamic State unilaterally did so, thereby ignoring numerous ideologues and leaders many jihadists believe should have been consulted. This is what AQIM means when it says "the expansion of consultation" is necessary before announcing a caliphate.

In fact, AQIM says that it was previously consulted by the Islamic State with respect to the infighting in Syria, thereby making the Islamic State's failure to consult before the caliphate announcement all the more noteworthy.

"We are not the ones who speak in secret if we say that when the signs of sedition appeared in Syria, our brothers in the [Islamic] State sent to us messages in which they made us aware of details of what happened, and it is an act for which we thank them, as we thanked them their trust in us," AQIM's statement reads. "Then why today, and the calamity is greater and the issue is more serious, do they make such an announcement without the advice of the leaders of the mujahideen, who have proven their sincerity and excellence, their advice for the Ummah, and their efforts to establish the rightly-guided caliphate were proven[?]"

Echoing the criticisms of other leading jihadists, AQIM wonders what the Islamic State's position is with respect to the Taliban, the Islamic Caucasus Emirate, and all of the "al Qaeda branches in other regions." The Islamic State's caliphate declaration can be read as an attempt to abrogate the authority of all these groups, which AQIM obviously does not think is justified.

AQIM calls on a number of jihadist leaders to rectify the intra-jihadist conflict. Among the leaders mentioned in AQIM's statement are Ayman al Zawahiri, the heads of the other al Qaeda branches, Taliban emir Mullah Omar, and Abu Bakr al Baghdadi (now called "Caliph Ibrahim" by his followers). Also included on AQIM's list of jihadists the group hopes can bring an end to the infighting is Abu Muhammad al Maqdisi, a staunch critic of the Islamic State and its caliphate.

AQIM wants the "scholars of the Ummah, led by the sheikhs of the mujahideen and their references, to give us a fatwa that is absolutely clear in this calamity, and to straighten our position if they see that it is crooked." Perhaps out of frustration that more has not been done to confront the Islamic State's caliphate claims, AQIM says, "The truth is our demand, so this is the time to speak the truth aloud and to guide the mujahideen."

The al Qaeda group again implores the jihadi factions in Syria to end their war against one another. "We call upon the jihadi factions that are fighting against the [Islamic] State, and on top of them, our brothers in the Al Nusrah Front, to stop the campaign of incitement against it, and to commit to the order of their emir, Sheikh Ayman [al Zawahiri]," AQIM's statement reads, according to SITE's translation. "We also call on our brothers in the Islamic State to do the same. All this is to facilitate the reconciliation between them."

Earlier this month, it was erroneously reported by some media outlets that AQIM had defected from al Qaeda's ranks and sworn bayat to the Islamic State. That reporting was based on a misreading of another statement issued by AQIM, in which the group praised the Islamic State's advances in Iraq. But even in that statement, AQIM referred to Zawahiri as the organization's "sheikh" and "emir."

Assuming the latest statement from AQIM is authentic, the group makes clear that it is still loyal to Zawahiri, and doesn't think highly of the Islamic State's attempted power grab within the jihadist world.

AQIM confirms that the formation of an Islamic Caliphate is AQIM's "demand" and that its members "are working towards" the goal through their jihad. The Islamic State's caliphate has not put an end to AQIM's quest. Nor, in AQIM's view, has the Islamic State successfully usurped al Qaeda's authority.

While no other al Qaeda group has officially responded to the Islamic State's claims, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula released two messages earlier this month demonstrating that it also remains loyal to al Qaeda's senior leadership.

US adds Norwegian AQAP bomb maker to list of terrorists

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The US State Department added a Norwegian who serves as a bomb maker for al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula to its list of Specially Designated Global Terrorists.

Anders Cameroon Ostensvig Dale, a Norwegian who converted to Islam and quickly joined AQAP in Yemen, was added to the list of global terrorists today.

"Dale has received terrorist training and was taught to make bomb-belts, improvised explosive devices, and larger explosives used in car bombs," State said. Dale traveled back and forth between Norway and Yemen multiple times from 2008 to 2011. He remained in Yemen in December 2011. According to reports, Dale claimed he traveled to Yemen to study Islam.

Dale, who goes by the nom de guerre Muslim Abu Abdurrahman, according to The Sunday Times, has been implicated in several terrorist plots. In 2012, he was thought to be involved with an airline plot, as well as a plot to conduct an attack during the Olympics that same year.

US intelligence officials contacted by The Long War Journal said that Dale was likely trained by Ibrahim al Asiri or one of his lieutenants. Asiri is a Specially Designated Global Terrorist who is AQAP's master bomb maker and has been implicated in several of the terror group's plots to carry out bombings in the West. Considered to be al Qaeda's most innovative bomb maker, Asiri has boasted that he has trained others to manufacture explosive devices for AQAP. Asiri is known for building the so-called underwear bomb and for designing explosive devices that are disguised as items such as printers.

In the past, Dale is thought to have been operating in northern Yemen. In 2012, he was spotted in Azzana and Dammaj in northern Yemen.

Prior to converting to Islam, Dale was described as a 9/11 conspiracy theorist who was a member of Left-wing political movements in Norway. He was a member of the far-Left Blitz movement, which espouses communism, socialism, and anarchism. He then became a member of the Norwegian Green Party. In 2012, a family member, Cathrine Østensvig Dale, was working as a senior executive in the Norwegian Finance Ministry.

Dale is said to have become a Muslim in 2008 after marrying the daughter of a Moroccan diplomat, with whom he had a child. Dale and his wife reportedly separated after her family learned of his terrorist connections.

The State Department's designation of Dale comes at a time when Western intelligence officials and the US Department of Justice are warning about increasing threats against airlines. In early July, American officials called for tighter security at foreign airports that have direct flights to the US, following intelligence reports that al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and the Al Nusrah Front in Syria are cooperating on attack plans, and possibly developing currently undetectable bombs capable of downing an airliner.


Analysis: Al Qaeda attempts to undermine new Islamic State with old video of Osama bin Laden

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On July 13, Al Qaeda's As Sahab posted this video of Osama bin Laden from the summer of 2001 on its Twitter feed.



On July 13, al Qaeda's propaganda arm, As Sahab, tweeted a link to an old video of Osama bin Laden. Judging by markers in the video, including bin Laden's reference to the USS Cole bombing taking place "nine months ago" (al Qaeda attacked the Cole on Oct. 12, 2000), it appears the video was recorded in the middle of 2001.

The first part of bin Laden's lecture focuses on standard al Qaeda themes, including the war against America. In all likelihood, that is not why al Qaeda posted this particular video of bin Laden now. Instead, al Qaeda is attempting to use the video to counter the Islamic State, which has been disowned by al Qaeda's senior leadership, and its newly announced caliphate.

"Today, with the grace of Allah, we are redrawing the map of the Islamic world to become one state under the banner of the caliphate," bin Laden says.

The deceased al Qaeda leader goes on to explain that the Prophet Mohammed found that certain "pillars" were required to build a "strong Islamic State."

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As Sahab is advertising the video of bin Laden with this banner. A similar banner is being featured on a number of jihadist sites, including at the top of the Shumukh al Islam forum.

"The Prophet spent 13 years in Mecca searching for these pillars: a strong group, obedience and respect, immigration, and jihad," bin Laden says, according to a translation obtained by The Long War Journal. Mohammed "was on a quest to find these four things," bin Laden continues. "He wanted to find a strong group that is willing to carry our jihad -- those two demands are complementary -- and be obedient and respectful. He found these four pillars after 13 years."

A few sentences later, bin Laden adds: "Those who move from east to west, claiming that they want to establish God's sharia but do not want to establish the prerequisites and pillars and do not want to tolerate the suffering of finding a group, obeying their leaders, migrating, and carrying out jihad are ignorant and unaware of the Prophet's doctrine."

The implied critique of the Islamic State and its announced caliphate, which covers parts of Syria and Iraq, is obvious. When viewed through bin Laden's testimony, the Islamic State has not built the "pillars" necessary for a caliphate, especially when it comes to "obeying their leaders."

Indeed, bin Laden's successor, Ayman al Zawahiri, has covered this issue in his messages addressing the Islamic State's history. As Sahab released two messages from Zawahiri concerning the Islamic State in May. "Listen to and obey your emir once again," Zawahiri says when addressing Baghdadi in the first message. "Come back to what your sheikhs, emirs, and those who preceded you on the path and immigration of jihad have worked hard for." In both of his messages in May, Zawahiri builds a case against Baghdadi, showing that the Islamic State's self-appointed "caliph" was once Zawahiri's subordinate. Therefore, by accusing Baghdadi of being disobedient towards his leader, Zawahiri was also accusing him of ignoring one of the "pillars" necessary for building a true Islamic State.

Al Qaeda's charge against Abu Bakr al Baghdadi's group could extend further, given that one of the pillars mentioned by bin Laden requires a jihadist group to be "obedient and respectful." Other jihadist groups and ideologues whose beliefs are not all that different from the Islamic State's have repeatedly accused Baghdadi's group of being disrespectful towards anyone who disagrees with its attempted power grab. The disagreements have even led to vicious infighting between jihadists in Syria.

Bin Laden goes on to recount, in brief, the history of al Qaeda's relations with the Taliban. The Taliban "allowed us to establish training camps on their land, regardless of all the international pressure against them," bin Laden says. "They are also helping us in our preparations and training although they know that we are preparing to strike the United States of America." This statement is interesting because there has long been a debate over how the Taliban viewed such attacks. And this is further evidence that bin Laden was loose-lipped prior to the 9/11 attacks, upsetting some of his co-conspirators who wanted to maintain the utmost secrecy.

An audience member asks bin Laden about his bayat (oath of allegiance) to Mullah Omar, the Taliban's emir. And bin Laden's response likely has bearing on Abu Bakr al Baghdadi's claim to be the rightful caliph.

"My pledge of allegiance to the Emir of the Believers [Mullah Omar] is the great pledge of allegiance, which is mentioned in the chapters of the Koran and the stories of the Sunnah," bin Laden says. "Every Muslim should set his mind and heart and pledge allegiance to the Emir of the Believers Mullah Muhammad Omar for this is the great pledge."

The Islamic State's announced caliphate attempts to usurp the power and authority of all other jihadist groups, including the Taliban, by demanding that they swear bayat to the new caliph. This has drawn criticism from highly influential jihadist ideologues such as Abu Muhammad al Maqdisi, as well as al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).

Bin Laden argues that Mullah Omar was deserving of such a pledge, and the implication of his testimony is that Abu Bakr al Baghdadi is not.

Bin Laden cites Muhammad Bin Abd al Wahhab, the 18th century Islamic leader, as saying: ''When a man is in charge of a country and the scholars in this country accept his ruling, then his ruling as an emir of the believers is legitimate.'' Bin Laden says that Mullah Omar has satisfied this requirement, claiming that "more than 1,500 scholars [have] pledged" their allegiance to Omar. Therefore, bin Laden argues, "it is the duty of everyone to pledge allegiance to him."

In Abu Bakr al Baghdadi's case, the situation is precisely the opposite. Even before he announced to the world that he was the new caliph, both Baghdadi and his organization drew widespread rejection from leading jihadists, including groups that are the Islamic State's ideological kinsmen. And while jihadists considered Mullah Omar the true ruler of Afghanistan, Baghdadi's authority inside Syria was never widely recognized as legitimate, even by his fellow jihadists.

It is widely believed that the new caliph should be descended from the Quraish tribe, from which Islam's earliest leaders, including Mohammed, came. In seeking to buttress Abu Bakr al Baghdadi's claim to be the new caliph, the Islamic State has claimed that he is descended from the Quraish tribe.

Bin Laden says in the video that Mullah Omar's ancestry should not bar him from being the rightful ruler. Omar is not descended from the Quraish tribe, but bin Laden says this is a "minor factor," which can be ignored given the circumstances that existed at the time. The "pledge of allegiance" to Omar is "legitimate," bin Laden insists.

Al Qaeda has been building its ideological arguments against the Islamic State's caliphate for months, well before the group publicly claimed that Baghdadi was the new caliph. In January, for instance, Zawahiri explained that the rightful ruler of an Islamic state should have the approval of leading jihadist figures. This was almost certainly a pointed criticism of Baghdadi, who first tried to name himself the ruler in Syria.

Bin Laden's words weigh heavily for both sides

Some veteran al Qaeda-linked jihadists have urged al Qaeda's senior leadership to do more to undermine the Islamic State. For instance, Hani al Sibai, a longtime ally of Zawahiri, wrote in a tweet earlier this month that al Qaeda needs to issue an "explicit" statement rejecting the Islamic State's caliphate. Sibai wrote, "Suggestions and innuendoes will not do!"

Al Qaeda's decision to post the video of bin Laden from 2001 does not constitute an "explicit" statement, but it does attempt to undermine the Islamic State's claims.

The Islamic State has taken a more direct approach in its own propaganda. When it was known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham (ISIS), Baghdadi's organization released a series of slickly-produced videos titled "The Establishment of the Islamic State."

The ISIS videos cited quotes from various deceased al Qaeda leaders praising the Islamic State prior to its expansion into Syria, when it was known as the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI). The argument was straightforward: Al Qaeda used to endorse Baghdadi's organization as a legitimate entity, but now rejects it.

From al Qaeda's perspective, of course, Zawahiri and his subordinates had good reasons to object to the ISIS' expansion into Syria and then eventually disown the group.

Regardless, the ISIS video series effectively portrayed Baghdadi's operation as the rightful heir to al Qaeda's legacy. The videos drove home this point by featuring deceased al Qaeda bigwigs such as Osama bin Laden, Abu Yahya al Libi, and Anwar al Awlaki, among others. All of them had praised the ISI. Screen shots from the videos are included below.

In the ongoing propaganda war between the Islamic State and al Qaeda, therefore, bin Laden's words still weigh heavily for both sides.


Screen shots from "The Establishment of the Islamic State" propaganda series, which was released by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham (ISIS). The group rebranded itself as simply the "Islamic State" in June.

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Boko Haram leader fires back at Twitter campaign

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Boko Haram sent a new video over the weekend to Agence France Presse, boasting of the group's latest feats while mocking the global hashtag campaign #BringBackOurGirls.

Standing in front of his soldiers and various military vehicles, Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau announced in the video: "We were the ones that detonated bomb in Abuja, that filthy city; we were responsible for the bomb in Kano, in Plateau. We were the ones that sent a female bomber to the refinery in Lagos but Adams Oshiomole the governor of Edo state said it was a fire disaster."

On June 25, the group bombed a shopping center in the capital city of Abuja shortly before Nigeria played Argentina in the World Cup tournament. The attack killed at least 21 people. Two days prior, an explosion at a school in Kano killed at least eight people.

Shekau, designated a global terrorist by the US State Department in June 2012, also paid homage in the video to other terrorist leaders, sending his "regards" to Taliban leader Mullah Omar, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula leader Nasr al Wuhayshi, and Abu Musab Abdel Wadoud a.k.a. Abdelmalek Droukdel, head of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.

With respect to Boko Haram's local aims, Shekau threatened Nigerian Sheikh Yahaya Jingir, leader of Nigeria's Izala movement, declaring "we will deal with you, you servant of democracy." Jingir, who has spoken out against terrorism, has stated that Boko Haram was sponsored to "smear Islam."

In reference to the international Twitter campaign #BringBackOurGirls, Shekau stated, "Nigerians are saying BringBackOurGirls, and we are telling Jonathan to bring back our arrested warriors, our army." The statement apparently refers to Shekau's position that the fate of the girls is tied to the release of Boko Haram fighters from Nigerian prisons. In late May, the Nigerian government reportedly called off a deal to swap 100 low-level Boko Haram sympathizers for "some" of the kidnapped girls, after the US, the UK, France, and Israel warned against negotiating with the terror group.

In early May, the terrorist leader appeared in a video claiming responsibility for the kidnapping of 276 schoolgirls from their boarding school in Chibok, northern Nigeria in April. Since their abduction, 57 girls escaped the group's clutches, leaving 219 currently unaccounted for and thought to be in Boko Haram's custody. While the Twitter campaign generated awareness of the plight of the kidnapped girls, it has not returned the girls to their families, nor is it likely to.

Shekau also used the latest video to highlight recent enhancements to Boko Haram's arsenal. He claimed: "We have recovered several arms from the Damboa military base attack including armoured tanks and Kalashnikov rifles (pointing at the stolen arms). Look at what God has given us free of charge; we filled our vans with ammunitions like sands. This is what is called religion and worship." In addition to seizing weapons, the group has a history of raiding local markets for food and other supplies.

Just prior to the video's release, suspected Boko Haram militants blew up a bridge linking Maiduguri and Biu in Nigeria's northeast on July 12. By destroying the bridge, which sits on a major northern Nigerian highway, Boko Haram has further limited outside access to the group's base camps in the Sambisa Forest, insulating and protecting them.

Suspected Boko Haram members also attacked Dille in southern Borno yesterday, shooting at villagers and torching homes and churches. Responding to the attack, a Nigerian government warplane fired on the area to push the fighters back. Reports indicate that at least six civilians were killed by the airstrike. Sources noted that some 20 militants were killed by local vigilantes but their deaths were unconfirmed.



US launches another drone strike in North Waziristan

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The US killed 18 suspected "militants" in another drone strike targeting an area of Pakistan's tribal agency of North Waziristan that previously served as a military command center for al Qaeda's military.

CIA operated Predators or the more deadly Reapers fired at least four missiles at a compound and a vehicle in the village of Saidgai in the Datta Khel area of North Waziristan, Dawn reported.

The compound was leveled and 18 "militants" were killed in the strike, Pakistani officials told the news agency. The New York Times reported that 20 people, "including 12 foreigners of Central Asian origin and eight local militants," were killed. The "foreigners of Central Asian origin" are likely front he Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan or the Turkistan Islamic Party, two al Qaeda-allied terror groups that operate in North Waziristan.

The exact target of today's strike was not disclosed. No senior al Qaeda or Taliban fighters are reported to have been killed in the strike.

Today's strike is the second in Datta Khel in the past week. On July 10, US drones are reported to have killed six militants in an attack in the village of Doga Mada Khel.

The Datta Khel area, where today's strike took place, is administered by Hafiz Gul Bahadar, the top Taliban commander for North Waziristan. Bahadar provides shelter to senior al Qaeda leaders as well as terrorists from numerous Pakistani and Central Asian terror groups.

Datta Khel is a known hub of Taliban, Haqqani Network, and al Qaeda activity. While Bahadar administers the region, the Haqqani Network, al Qaeda, and allied Central Asian jihadist groups are also based in the area. The Lashkar al Zil, al Qaeda's Shadow Army, is known to operate a command center in Datta Khel. Some of al Qaeda's top leaders have been killed in drone strikes in Datta Khel, including Mustafa Abu Yazid, a longtime al Qaeda leader and close confidant of Osama bin Laden and Ayman al Zawahiri; Abdullah Said al Libi, the commander of the Shadow Army; and Zuhaib al Zahibi, a general in the Shadow Army.

The US has now carried out five drone strikes in Pakistan since June 11. Three of the strikes took place after the Pakistani military launched an operation that is targeting some Taliban elements in North Waziristan.

Prior to the June 11 drone strike, the last US attack took place in late December 2013. The US put the program on hold after the Pakistani government entered into peace talks with the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan. US intelligence officials have told The Long War Journal that there was no shortage of al Qaeda and other terrorists to target during the six-month lull. [See LWJ report, US launches 2 drone strikes in Pakistan, breaks 6-month lull.]

Today's strike coincides with Operation Zarb-e-Azb, the Pakistani military offensive in North Waziristan. The military claims it has killed more than 400 "terrorists" and "foreigners," and zero civilians, during a series of airstrikes in North Waziristan. The Pakistani military also asserts that most of those killed are from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and the Turkistan Islamic Party, two regional jihadist groups with close ties to al Qaeda. The Pakistani military claims to have cleared 80 percent of Miramshah, the main town in North Waziristan. But most of the jihadists in North Waziristan are thought to have fled the offensive long before it began.

The Pakistani military appears to be focusing on foreign terrorist groups as well as the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, and is not confronting the Haqqani Network or the Hafiz Gul Bahadar group. These two independent Taliban factions are considered "good Taliban" as they do not openly advocate attacking the Pakistan state. But the Haqqanis and the Bahadar group, the two most powerful Taliban factions in North Waziristan, shelter and support al Qaeda, IMU, TIP, and the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan (the "bad Taliban"). [See LWJ report, Pakistan launches 'comprehensive operation against foreign and local terrorists' in North Waziristan, and Threat Matrix report, Pakistani forces focus on 'foreigners' in North Waziristan operation.]

Islamic State, allies blunt Iraqi offensive to retake Tikrit

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Iraqi and Syrian towns and cities seized by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham and its allies. Map created by The Long War Journal. Click to view larger map.


The Islamic State and its Baathist allies have forced Iraqi forces that were attempting to retake Tikrit to withdraw from the city just one day after launching a much touted offensive.

Iraqi forces, which include regular Army units, paramilitary SWAT teams, and hastily raised Shia militias from the south, launched their offensive to regain control of the capital of Salahaddin province with much fanfare yesterday morning. The military claimed to take control of much of the southern part of the city, as well as a hospital and a police academy.

But the assault force "retreated from Tikrit before sunset on Tuesday ... after coming under heavy mortar and sniper fire," Reuters reported.

The Salahaddin Division of the Islamic State claimed on its Twitter page that its forces stopped the Iraqi assault force on the southern outskirts of Tikrit. The jihadist group also claimed that a "Libyan Brother" known as "Okasha" was killed while launching "a martyrdom operation," or suicide attack, against Iraqi forces. The Salahaddin Division also said two other foreign suicide bombers, "Abu Abdullah Azerbaijani" and "Abu Shaybah Jazrawi," (a Saudi), launched suicide attacks near Samarra and killed or wounded dozens of soldiers. The reports could not be confirmed.

The Salahaddin Division celebrated its victory and published photographs of the aftermath of the battle on its Twitter feed. The images included Islamic State fighters holding their flags while standing on top of abandoned or destroyed Iraqi military vehicles, including US-made HUMVEEs, as well a captured banner of a Shia militia.

The Salahaddin Division has also claimed it shot down an Iraqi military helicopter yesterday, however the report has not been confirmed. Islamic State fighters have shot down at least one Iraqi military helicopter in Tikrit.

The Iraqi military has now failed at its second attempt to retake Tikrit, which fell to the Islamic State and its allies on June 11. At the end of June, Iraqi forces air assaulted into Tikrit University to the north of the city while ground forces advanced from the south. That offensive stalled and Iraqi forces withdrew from the city after heavy fighting.

The latest failed Tikrit offensive highlights the deteriorating condition of the Iraqi armed forces. The military has been forced to cobble together units after at least four of Iraq's 17 regular army divisions are no longer viable (note, The Long War Journal estimates that at least seven divisions have been rendered ineffective since the beginning of the year; see Threat Matrix report, US advisers give dark assessment of state of Iraqi military).

In Tikrit, the military is fighting alongside poorly trained militias who are ill-suited to conduct offensive operations. Additionally, SWAT forces, while highly trained and likely more motivated than regular forces, are being misused as infantry.

The Iraqi military and the government have been unable to regain control of Ninewa and much of Salahaddin and Diyala provinces after losing them in an offensive launched by the Islamic State and its allies that began on June 10. Mosul, Iraq's second largest city, is firmly under the control of the Islamic State.

Most of Anbar as well as northern Babil province are also under the control of the Islamic State. Fallujah and other cities and towns fell after the Islamic State went on the offensive in Anbar at the beginning of January. The Iraqi military has been unable to retake areas in Anbar lost earlier this year. Half of Ramadi, the provincial capital, is said to be under control of the Islamic State. The military recently airlifted 4,000 militiamen to Ramadi, a further indication that the two Iraqi divisions stationed in Anbar, the 1st and the 7th, are no longer cohesive fighting forces.


Photographs of the aftermath of the fighting in Tikrit from the Islamic State's Salahaddin Division:

An Islamic State fighter raises the group's banner in front of dozens of abandoned military vehicles outside of Tikrit:

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A US-made HUMVEE destroyed in the Iraqi military's second attempt to retake Tikrit:

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An Iraqi police armored vehicle captured by the Islamic State:

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Islamic State fighters display a captured banner of a Shia militia:

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An Islamic State fighter fires a machine gun at a military helicopter:

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A burned-out military truck abandoned during the failed attempt to retake Tikrit:

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Australian Islamic State suicide bomber attacks Shia shrine in Baghdad

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The Islamic State claimed that an Australian fighter killed several Iraqis in a suicide attack at a Shia shrine in Baghdad today.

The Baghdad Division of the Islamic State claimed credit for today's attack in the Al Shorja neighborhood in Baghdad in a statement that was released on the group's Twitter feed. Five people were killed and 37 more were wounded in the suicide attack, according to the National Iraqi News Agency.

The Islamic State said today's attack in Baghdad was executed by "the brother,
the knight, the emigrant, Abu Bakr al Australi," according to a translation of the statement by the SITE Intelligence Group. Abu Bakr's real name has not been disclosed.

Abu Bakr "advanced on a day when many among the Arabs stopped," and detonated "his heavy explosive belt amidst one of the Rafidah [Shia] temples in Al Shorja."

The Islamic State claimed that the Al Shorja mosque was used by Shia militias "for the war on Islam and to kill and displace its people." Shia clerics have called on Iraqis to volunteer to defend Shia shrines as well as Baghdad and other areas of the country that have not been taken over by the Islamic State and allied groups.

Today's suicide attack by a foreign fighter precedes three other such attacks that took place yesterday. The Salahaddin Division claimed that a Libyan, a Saudi, and an Azerbaijani executed suicide bombings in Tikrit and near Samarra.

In the past, the Islamic State has promoted suicide attacks by its foreign fighters in both Iraq and Syria. Prior to its offensive that began on June 10, the Islamic State released multiple statements praising foreign suicide bombers from countries such as Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Iran, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan or Pakistan, Tajikistan, the Russian Republic of Chechnya, France, Germany, England, and Denmark. [See LWJ report, ISIS touts French, German, and Libyan suicide bombers in Syria.]

Australian jihadists in Iraq and Syria

Several prominent Australian clerics are known to have traveled to Syria to support the jihad. Abu Sulayman al Muhajir, a firebrand cleric while in Australia, is currently a senior sharia (Islamic law) official in the Al Nusrah Front, al Qaeda's official branch in Syria, which is a rival of the Islamic State. Abu Sulayman has been critical of the Islamic State in the past.

Mustapha al Majzoub, a dual Australian and Syrian citizen who resided in Sydney before traveling to Syria, was killed in a rocket attack in Aleppo on Aug. 19, 2012. According to jihadists, Majzoub was known for his efforts to recruit fighters from Australia, and had gone to Syria in June 2012 to "join the resistance alongside jihadi Salafis."

Also, Musa Cerantonio, an Australia cleric who supported and joined the Islamic State, was captured in the Philippines on July 11. Cerantonio claimed on July 1 that he was traveling to Syria to support the Islamic State.

US drones target 'Punjabi Taliban' in North Waziristan strike

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The US killed 11 "militants," including two commanders from the Punjabi Taliban, in a strike in Pakistan's lawless tribal agency of North Waziristan.

The remotely piloted Predators or Reapers are reported to have fired eight missiles at a compound in the village of Doga Mada Khel in the Datta Khel area of the tribal agency in the early morning of July 19, according to AFP.

Two commanders from the Punjabi Taliban, a grouping of jihadist groups from Pakistan's Punjab province, are said to have been killed, but their names were not disclosed by Pakistani officials. The Punjabi Taliban, whose leader, Asmatullah Muawiya, also serves as an al Qaeda commander, has been agreeable to conducting peace talks with the Pakistani government.

The July 19 strike is the third in the Datta Khel area of North Waziristan in the past 10 days, and the second in the village of Doga Mada Khel. On July 10, US drones are reported to have killed six militants in an attack in the same village. And on July 16, the US reportedly killed 18 jihadists, including 12 "of Central Asian origin," in a strike in the village of Saidgai.

The ferocity of today's strike, with eight missiles fired, indicates that the US is hunting a top jihadist leader in the village.

Datta Khel is a known al Qaeda and jihadist hub

The Datta Khel area, where today's strike took place, is administered by Hafiz Gul Bahadar, the top Taliban commander for North Waziristan. Bahadar provides shelter to senior al Qaeda leaders as well as terrorists from numerous Pakistani and Central Asian terror groups.

Datta Khel is a known hub of Taliban, Haqqani Network, and al Qaeda activity. While Bahadar administers the region, the Haqqani Network, al Qaeda, and allied Central Asian jihadist groups are also based in the area. The Lashkar al Zil, al Qaeda's Shadow Army, is known to operate a command center in Datta Khel. Some of al Qaeda's top leaders have been killed in drone strikes in Datta Khel, including Mustafa Abu Yazid, a longtime al Qaeda leader and close confidant of Osama bin Laden and Ayman al Zawahiri; Abdullah Said al Libi, the commander of the Shadow Army; and Zuhaib al Zahibi, a general in the Shadow Army.

The US has now carried out six drone strikes in Pakistan since June 11. Four of the strikes took place after the Pakistani military launched an operation that is targeting some Taliban elements in North Waziristan.

Prior to the June 11 drone strike, the last US attack took place in late December 2013. The US put the program on hold after the Pakistani government entered into peace talks with the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan. US intelligence officials have told The Long War Journal that there was no shortage of al Qaeda and other terrorists to target during the six-month lull. [See LWJ report, US launches 2 drone strikes in Pakistan, breaks 6-month lull.]

The most recent drone strike coincides with Operation Zarb-e-Azb, the Pakistani military offensive in North Waziristan. The military claims it has killed more than 400 "terrorists" and "foreigners," and zero civilians, during a series of airstrikes in North Waziristan. The Pakistani military also asserts that most of those killed are from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and the Turkistan Islamic Party, two regional jihadist groups with close ties to al Qaeda. The Pakistani military claims to have cleared 80 percent of Miramshah, the main town in North Waziristan. But most of the jihadists in North Waziristan are thought to have fled the offensive long before it began.

The Pakistani military appears to be focusing on foreign terrorist groups as well as the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, and is not confronting the Haqqani Network or the Hafiz Gul Bahadar group. These two independent Taliban factions are considered "good Taliban" as they do not openly advocate attacking the Pakistan state. But the Haqqanis and the Bahadar group, the two most powerful Taliban factions in North Waziristan, shelter and support al Qaeda, IMU, TIP, and the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan (the "bad Taliban"). [See LWJ report, Pakistan launches 'comprehensive operation against foreign and local terrorists' in North Waziristan, and Threat Matrix report, Pakistani forces focus on 'foreigners' in North Waziristan operation.]

Islamic State overruns Camp Speicher, routs Iraqi forces

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Two days after repelling an Iraqi military attempt to retake the city of Tikrit, the Islamic State and its allies are said to have overran Camp Speicher, a large base just outside the city that was being used in the failed effort to retake the provincial capital.

The Islamic State's Salahaddin Division claimed in an official statement released on Twitter yesterday that it overran Camp Speicher and is in "control of the airport and the base completely." In the statement, the Islamic State claimed it killed "scores" of Iraqi military personnel, including a brigadier general and a colonel. It also said that a number of pilots were killed in a "martyrdom" or suicide operation on the base before it was overrun.

The Islamic State also said it destroyed seven aircraft on the tarmac and its "detachments of air defense" shot down two additional aircraft, all which are thought to be helicopters. The Iraqi military had been using helicopters to ferry troops and supplies to Camp Speicher and Tikrit University, where special forces troops attempted to gain a foothold in the northern part of the city.

Additionally, the Islamic State said it destroyed several armored and other vehicles, while the base's fuel supply was set ablaze.

The Islamic State's claims were echoed by McClatchy, who interviewed residents of Tikrit as well as a Kurdish military officer. One Tikrit resident said that more than 700 Iraqi soldiers and 150 "Iranians," who are likely members of the Shia militias that have been augmenting the military, were based at Speicher. Captured members of the military and militia are said to have been paraded in the streets of Tikrit. Many are said to have been executed.

The Iraqi government and the military, which has only released rosy assessments of the fighting on all fronts, have not commented on the situation in Tikrit.

The Iraqi military made its first effort to retake Tikrit in late June, when it airlifted commandos into Tikrit University and an effort to gain a toehold north of the city. An advance on the city from the south was defeated. Then, on July 16, the Iraqi military launched Operation Decisive Sword. A large column of military and militia units entered southern Tikrit and thought they liberated the city, but as they celebrated they were ambushed with suicide bombers, IEDs, and conventional attacks. The Iraqi forces then withdrew from the city.

After the Iraqi military withdrew from southern Tikrit on July 16, the Islamic State immediately began its assault on Camp Speicher, as the base was the last remaining holdout of Iraqi forces near the city (Iraqi forces were withdrawn from Tikrit University sometime before the second offensive was launched).

The loss of Camp Speicher, and perhaps more importantly, the loss of the helicopters and its pilots if the Islamic State's claims are true, is a serious blow to both the morale and the operational capabilities of the Iraqi military. The Iraqi military, which has failed to retake major cities and towns from the Islamic State and its allies, now may find it more difficult to support and defend the Bayji oil refinery just to the north, which has been largely resupplied by helicopters.

Iraqi military is in disarray

The latest failed Tikrit offensive and the loss of Camp Speicher highlights the deteriorating condition of the Iraqi armed forces. The military has been forced to cobble together units after at least four of Iraq's 15 regular army divisions are no longer viable (note, The Long War Journal estimates that at least seven divisions have been rendered ineffective since the beginning of the year; see Threat Matrix report, US advisers give dark assessment of state of Iraqi military).

In Tikrit, the military is fighting alongside poorly trained militias who are ill-suited to conduct offensive operations. Additionally, SWAT forces, while highly trained and likely more motivated than regular forces, are being misused as infantry.

The Iraqi military and the government have been unable to regain control of Ninewa and much of Salahaddin and Diyala provinces after losing them in an offensive launched by the Islamic State and its allies that began on June 10. Mosul, Iraq's second largest city, is firmly under the control of the Islamic State.

Most of Anbar as well as northern Babil province are also under the control of the Islamic State. Fallujah and other cities and towns fell after the Islamic State went on the offensive in Anbar at the beginning of January. The Iraqi military has been unable to retake areas in Anbar lost earlier this year. Half of Ramadi, the provincial capital, is said to be under control of the Islamic State. The military recently airlifted 4,000 militiamen to Ramadi, a further indication that the two Iraqi divisions stationed in Anbar, the 1st and the 7th, are no longer cohesive fighting forces.

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