1 The Long War Journal

Banner for the Al Nusrah Front, a jihadist group in Syria. Image from the SITE Intelligence Group.

The Al Nusrah Front for the People of the Levant, al Qaeda in Iraq's affiliate in Syria, has claimed credit for two more suicide attacks against Bashar al Assad's military.

In a statement released on the Al Nusrah Front's Twitter page, the group said it struck military targets in Homs and Hama in the past week, according to the SITE Intelligence Group. One of the attacks was carried out in conjunction with two other Syrian rebel groups.

The Al Nusrah Front said a suicide attack on a "military barracks" in the city of Al Qusair in Homs province on Jan. 23 was conducted by Abu Islam al Shami "after coordinating with the independent al-Farooq regiment and the Ashbal al-'Aqida [Cubs of the Creed] Brigade," according to SITE. Al Shami drove a truck packed with "nearly 20 tons of explosive materials" into "the heart of the barracks."

The Al Nusrah Front also said a suicide bomber named Abu Abdul Jabbar al Najdi "detonated an Isuzu truck laden with 3.5 tons of explosive materials in the area of al-Salmiyya, and in one of the most secure areas" in Hama province on Jan. 21.

The group did not say how many Syrian soldiers and "thugs" were killed in either attack, but vowed to carry out further suicide strikes.

"The Al Nusrah Front promises its people in proud Homs that it will continue such blessed operations until it cleanses it of the filth of Nusayris [Alawhites] and grants relief to the Sunnis from their oppression," one of the statements said.

Additionally, another suicide attack is reported to have taken place on Jan. 19 near a mosque in the southern city of Dara'a. The government blamed the Al Nusrah Front for the attack; Al Nusrah has not claimed the attack.

The Al Nusrah Front has now claimed credit for 48 of the 58 suicide attacks that have taken place in Syria since December 2011, according to a tally by The Long War Journal (note that multiple suicide bombers deployed in a single operate are counted as part of a single attack). Last week, the terror group claimed credit for a complex suicide assault in Sa'sa', near the Golan Heights. Six suicide attacks have now been reported in Syria so far this year; Al Nusrah has claimed credit for five of them.

Al Nusrah has also served as the vanguard for jihadist forces in the major attacks on Syrian military bases. In concert with allied jihadist groups such as the Ahrar al Sham, the Islamic Vanguard, Mujahedeen Shura Council, the Muhajireen Group, and Chechen fighters, as well as supposedly secular insurgents groups such as the Free Syrian Army, the terror group has overrun three large Syrian installations since last fall [see LWJ report, Al Nusrah Front claims complex suicide assault on Syrian military base, for more information on the group's joint operations].

An al Qaeda affiliate

On Dec. 11, 2012, the US designated the Al Nusrah Front as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. The designation stated that the emir of al Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Du'a (a.k.a. Abu Bakr al Baghdadi al Husseini al Qurshi), "is in control of both AQI and Al Nusrah."

At the same time, the US added two senior Al Nusrah leaders, Maysar Ali Musa Abdallah al Juburi and Anas Hasan Khattab, both members of al Qaeda in Iraq, to the list of global terrorists; the US did not add the emir of Al Nusrah, Sheikh Abu Muhammad al Julani, to the list, however. [See LWJ report, US adds Al Nusrah Front, 2 leaders to terrorism list, for information on the designation of the Al Nusrah Front and the two leaders.]

Despite Al Nusrah's known affiliation with al Qaeda and its radical ideology, Syrian opposition groups, including the supposedly secular Syrian National Coalition, have rallied to support Al Nusrah. Immediately after the US designated Al Nusrah as a terrorist group, 29 Syrian opposition groups signed a petition that not only condemned the US's designation, but said "we are all Al Nusrah," and urged their supporters to raise Al Nusrah's flag (which is the flag of al Qaeda) [see LWJ report, Syrian National Coalition urges US to drop Al Nusrah terrorism designation].

Afghan and Coalition forces arrested an Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) commander today during an operation in Afghanistan's northern Baghlan province. The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) reported capturing the member of the al Qaeda-linked IMU in the Burkah district, making this the second IMU operative captured in that district so far this year.

According to ISAF, "the leader conducted assassinations directed by insurgent leadership in the province." He also coordinated the supply of weapons to insurgents for attacks on Afghan and Coalition forces. However, when asked by The Long War Journal where he was acquiring the weapons, ISAF said it could not verify the location but that the detainee is of "Afghan-Uzbek nationality."

The last reported operation targeting an IMU operative occurred on Jan. 11, also in the Burkah district of Baghlan province. In that raid, Afghan and Coalition forces captured a Taliban leader who also serves as an IMU commander and was responsible for rooting out disloyal fighters within both organizations. This followed a Jan. 10 operation conducted in neighboring Takhar province that killed an IMU facilitator by the name of Mazlum Yar. Yar facilitated suicide bombers and organized IED emplacement throughout Takhar and Baghlan provinces.

Al Qaeda and its affiliates remain entrenched in Afghanistan

According to The Long War Journal's study of al Qaeda-affiliated groups operating inside Afghanistan, three IMU operatives have been killed or captured this year and five operations targeting al Qaeda or its affiliates have been conducted in January 2013. By comparison, only two such operations were conducted in Afghanistan in January 2012, and eight were conducted in January 2011 at the height of the surge.

The study indicates that the IMU has focused its operations in the northern Afghan provinces, primarily Kunduz, Baghlan, and Takhar. At the same time, members of al Qaeda have found safe havens in the country's eastern provinces along the Pakistani border, particularly Kunar province, where two operations were conducted last week targeting insurgents linked to the terror organization [see LWJ reports: Al Qaeda-linked Taliban commander targeted in Kunar raid and ISAF launches another raid targeting al Qaeda in Kunar].

Last year, The Long War Journal counted 67 operations targeting al Qaeda-linked insurgents. These primarily included members of the IMU, foreign fighters, and insurgents who are either directly linked to or are actual members of al Qaeda. During the height of the Obama administration's surge in 2011, there were 92 such operations; and in 2010, 79 operations. However, in 2009 before the surge was launched, there were only 35 reported operations targeting al Qaeda and affiliated groups in Afghanistan.

The rise in raids during the surge years reflects the increase in operational tempo likely due to the greater number of Coalition troops available. But as Coalition troops were withdrawn throughout 2012, the number of raids did not return to their pre-surge level or decrease because of gains made. This could suggest a number of things, including a renewed focus by ISAF troops in targeting al Qaeda, a previous underreporting of operations targeting the group, or a resurgent al Qaeda in Afghanistan. Whatever the answer may be will likely become more apparent in 2013. [For more information on the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, see ISAF kills and captures IMU operatives in Afghan north; and for more information on al Qaeda in Afghanistan, see ISAF launches 2 raids targeting al Qaeda-linked commanders.]

The Israeli Air Force reportedly carried out an airstrike on a Syrian weapons convoy last night. While some accounts have suggested that the convoy may have been carrying chemical weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Associated Press reports that the primary target was Russian-made SA-17 anti-aircraft missiles, which were likely destined for Hezbollah.

It is currently unclear whether the strike, which was confirmed to Reuters by four sources, took place in Syrian or Lebanese territory. A high-ranking Lebanese security source told the Daily Star that "[n]o strike took place on Lebanese soil." Haaretz reports that a Lebanese source has said the strike took place near the city of al-Kassir in western Syria, which is approximately 15 kilometers from Lebanon's border.

While Israeli officials have not confirmed the strike, Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon reportedly told Israel Radio on Wednesday that Israel will "not compromise on the security of the northern front."

On Wednesday evening, the General Command of the Syrian Army and Armed Forces said that Israel had struck "a scientific research center responsible for raising the levels of resistance and self-defense in Jamraya area in Damascus Countryside," according to state-owned Sana. According to the Syrian news agency, two workers were killed and five others injured.

Over the past week, Israeli officials have expressed increased concern with regard to the situation in Syria. On Sunday, Israel deployed Iron Dome batteries in the north, including near Haifa, although an IDF spokesman said the deployment was "not related to any current situation assessments."

The following day, Israel's National Security Council head Yaakov Amidror was sent to Moscow for a "lightning visit" in an attempt "to convince the Kremlin to take steps to prevent Syria's stockpiles from falling into the hands of terrorist groups." On the same day, the New York Times reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "had [recently] been in marathon meetings for several days with military and intelligence chiefs and senior ministers, with unusual strictures on secrecy."

On Tuesday, Al-Monitor reported that IDF intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi was meeting with officials at the Pentagon, including Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey.

Also on Tuesday, the Commander of the Israeli Air Force, Major General Amir Eshel, said that "[t]he weakening governance in neighboring countries heralds greater exposure to hostile activity - Syria is the best example of that. We must deal with a wider array of enemies and adversaries than ever." Eshel added: "We work every day in order to lessen the immediate threats, to create better conditions so that we will be victorious in future wars."

He also warned that "[i]f a threat appears in the long, medium or short range, the Israel Air Force has the ability to exercise force almost instantly, and [implement] almost unlimited options at almost any location."

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The Al Nusrah Front for the People of the Levant, al Qaeda in Iraq's affiliate in Syria, has imposed sharia, or Islamic Law, in a town in eastern Syria that is close to the Iraqi border. The area has served as a jihadist haven in the past.

"Islamist militants" from the Al Nusrah Front "have taken unclothed mannequins they see as sexually enticing out of the shops," in the town of Mayadin, Reuters reported. The al Qaeda affiliate has "also prevented women from wearing trousers, preferring that they adopt the shapeless head-to-toe black veil." Alcohol has also been banned in the town.

Al Nusrah Front fighters are providing "daily religious teaching" to children, and are recruiting teenaged boys to fight President Bashir al Assad's regime. Additionally, the group is making a profit by selling oil, even to members of the Assad regime.

The imposition of sharia in Mayadin by the Al Nusrah Front is eerily similar to al Qaeda in Iraq's activities in Anbar province and other areas in Iraq from 2004 to 2007. Taking advantage of the security vacuum that arose after the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime, al Qaeda in Iraq seized control of several towns and cities in western Iraq and declared Islamic emirates in towns like Haditha and Al Qaim, which is right on the Syrian border. The terror group immediately began to enforce its radical interpretation of Islamic law on Sunni tribesmen, who were too weak and disorganized to fight back.

Al Qaeda in Iraq fighters made women wear the veil, cut off the fingers of Iraqis who were caught smoking, and even forced produce sellers to separate cucumbers and tomatoes, as placing the two vegetables next to each other was deemed to represent the mixing of the sexes.

Additionally, al Qaeda in Iraq profited from smuggling and selling Iraq's oil. The group even named emirs to manage the sale of oil, which was in turn used to fund operations.

Eastern Syria a jihadist haven

Al Qaeda in Iraq, which created the Al Nusrah Front and directs its operations, has long had a presence in eastern Syria. With the help of the Syrian government, al Qaeda in Iraq used the region as a rear area to support attacks against US and Iraqi forces in Anbar province. After being driven out of its strongholds in northern, western, and central Iraq by the beginning of 2008, al Qaeda in Iraq refocused its efforts to build an infrastructure in eastern Syria [see LWJ report, Eastern Syria becoming a new al Qaeda haven, from November 2009].

Since the uprising in Syria began nearly two years ago, al Qaeda has re-tasked the network in eastern Syria to target the regime which once supported terrorist operations in Iraq, a US military intelligence official who follows al Qaeda in the region told The Long War Journal.

"AQI basically flipped the network; the tail [the support network in Syria] grew teeth, and is now biting the hand that fed it for years," the official said.

"This didn't happen by accident," the official continued. "Al Qaeda has been preparing to take advantage of the Arab Spring."

The town of Mayadin is close to Abu Kamal, which is on the border with Iraq's Anbar province. Abu Kamal and its vicinity has long served as a rear area for al Qaeda in Iraq. During a raid in October 2008, US special operations forces struck at al Qaeda's facilitation network in the town of Sukkariya near Abu Kamal in eastern Syria, just five miles from the Iraqi border. US troops killed Abu Ghadiya, al Qaeda's senior facilitator, and his senior staff in the raid.

In the city of Deir al Zour, which is about 20 miles north of Mayadin, the Al Nusrah Front has banded together with nine other Islamist groups to create the "Mujahideen Shura Council."

The Mujahideen Shura Council in Deir al Zour was formed to "unite the ranks of the jihadi brigades in the Cause of Allah, organize the efforts and the attacks against the soldiers of disbelief and apostasy, and distinguish the ranks of truth from falsehood," according to a statement released by the group in December 2012. The statement was obtained and translated by the SITE Intelligence Group.

"We call upon our sincere mujahideen brothers all over the strong Levant to unite their ranks in groups, pure of the filth of suspicious groups and the infiltration of people who have no qualities or faith, in order to clarify their banner and purify their path," the statement continued.

The Al Nusrah Front in Deir al Zour appears to be following al Qaeda in Iraq's strategy to unite disparate jihadist groups. In the summer of 2006, al Qaeda in Iraq also formed a Mujahideen Shura Council to coordinate operations with various jihadist groups operating in Iraq. Later that year, al Qaeda in Iraq formed the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) to serve as the political front, and the Mujahideen Shura Council was folded in under the ISI's military wing.

The Al Nusrah Front remains active in Deir al Zour. Just yesterday, the Al Nusrah Front, the Furqan Brigade, and "battalions from the revolutionary council of Deir al Zour" overran the "political intelligence branch" headquarters in the city after laying siege to the building for six months, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. "[T]he building is considered one of the main bases for regime forces in the city," the human rights group stated on its Facebook page.

An al Qaeda affiliate

The Al Nusrah Front has used al Qaeda's signature tactic -- the suicide bomber and suicide assault team -- to target Syrian security forces. The Al Nusrah Front has now claimed credit for 48 of the 58 suicide attacks that have taken place in Syria since December 2011, according to a tally by The Long War Journal (note that multiple suicide bombers deployed in a single operate are counted as part of a single attack). Just two days ago, Al Nusrah claimed credit for two suicide attacks in Homs and Hama. Six suicide attacks have now been reported in Syria so far this year; Al Nusrah has claimed credit for five of them.

Ansar al Sharia Tunisia has honored two deceased senior al Qaeda leaders on its Facebook page this week. The first is Said al Shihri, an ex-Guantanamo detainee who cofounded al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and served as the group's deputy emir, or second-in-command. Al Shihri was reportedly wounded during a counterterrorism operation inside Yemen late last year and succumbed to his wounds.

The second senior al Qaeda leader honored by Ansar al Sharia Tunisia is Khalid bin Abdul Rahman al Husainan (a.k.a. Abu Zeid al Kuwaiti), who was reportedly killed in a drone strike late last year. Husainan was one of al Qaeda central's top leaders. His death has not yet been confirmed by al Qaeda.

Earlier this week, Ansar al Sharia Tunisia posted at least two entries to its Facebook page honoring al Shihri. The group also changed the banner on top of its Facebook page to commemorate al Shihri's death, and has since changed it to another, unrelated design.

A screen shot of this memorial for al Shihri was captured by The Long War Journal and can be seen at the top of this article. Two other posts dealing with al Shihri's death were also published on the group's Facebook page. One of them is shown here.

Earlier today, jihadists posted pictures that "appear to be screen captures taken from a mobile phone, and show a deceased man who looks like Husainan, covered with blankets," according to the SITE Intelligence Group. Those pictures were quickly reposted by Ansar al Sharia Tunisia.

A screen shot of one of Ansar al Sharia Tunisia's Facebook posts purportedly showing a deceased Husainan is included here.

A review of Ansar al Sharia Tunisia's Facebook page reveals many other posts dedicated to the global jihad mixed among posts dealing with the group's provision of social services.

For instance, one post shows Mohammed al Zawahiri, the brother of al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri, calling on Muslims to resist France's intervention in Mali. That video was also posted to Ansar al Sharia Egypt's Facebook page and other jihadist sites.

Another post is dedicated to Mokhtar Belmokhtar, the al Qaeda commander who seized a natural gas field in eastern Algeria earlier this month. "We in al Qaeda announce that we carried out the blessed commando operation," Belmokhtar proclaimed in a video claiming credit for the assault that killed dozens.

Still other posts deal with the jihad in Syria, Mali, and elsewhere. Several of the group's Facebook posts are dedicated to jihadist martyrs. The screen shot for one such post is shown here.

There are many additional examples in this vein.

In addition to its global jihadist content, Ansar al Sharia Tunisia posts pictures of its members providing social services, including medical assistance, to the local populace. Several posts feature Seifullah Ben Hassine (a.k.a. Abu Iyad al Tunisi), the group's leader, who has been designated an al Qaeda-affiliated terrorist by the United Nations.

Benghazi-related online posts

Beginning in December, Ansar al Sharia Tunisia posted online a series of provocative posts concerning Ali Ani al Harzi, who is one the chief suspects in the Sept. 11, 2012 terrorist attack in Benghazi, Libya. US officials reportedly requested that Harzi be detained in Turkey in October of last year after it was learned that he posted real-time updates during the assault.

Three FBI agents interviewed Harzi in late December. Shortly thereafter, Ansar al Sharia Tunisia released photos of the FBI agents online. The photos were released on jihadist forums by the group's official media arm, and were accompanied by a denunciation of the Tunisian government for allowing the Americans to question the "brother" Harzi.

Also in December, the organization released a video on its YouTube page of a lawyer confirming that the FBI had interviewed Harzi. In the YouTube video, Ansar al Sharia Tunisia asked God to free Harzi.

Harzi was freed by a Tunisian court on Jan. 8, 2013. And Ansar al Sharia Tunisia posted a video of the newly freed Harzi being congratulated by his compatriots on its Facebook page.

Ansar al Sharia Tunisia

Ansar al Sharia Tunisia, which orchestrated the Sept. 14, 2012 assault on the US Embassy in Tunis, is headed by Seifullah ben Hassine (a.k.a. Abu Iyad al Tunisi), who has longstanding ties to al Qaeda. In 2000, Hassine co-founded the Tunisian Combatant Group (TCG), an al Qaeda-affiliated group that participated in the Sept. 9, 2001 assassination of Northern Alliance leader Ahmed Shah Massoud in Afghanistan.

Hassine was arrested in Turkey in 2003 and deported to Tunisia, where he was sentenced to more than 40 years in prison. Hassine was released from prison in 2011, in the wake of the Tunisian revolution.

According to the Middle East Research Institute (MEMRI), Hassine eulogized Osama bin Laden after the al Qaeda master was killed in May 2011. "Let the entire world celebrate the death of one of our Ummah's leaders," Hassine said, "since the death and martyrdom of our leaders for the sake of this straight path ... is an indication of the truthfulness of our way."

MEMRI noted that in the eulogy, Hassine added that the death of bin Laden and other "brothers and leaders," such as al Qaeda in Iraq leaders Abu Musab al Zarqawi and Abu Omar al Baghdadi, should compel Muslims to fight on. "This is the allegiance, and that is the promise to Allah - do not regress after the death of your sheikh [i.e., bin Laden], or the deaths of your leaders," Hassine said. "Remain steadfast - and die for [the same cause] for which the best among you died."

Two other Ansar al Sharia Tunisia leaders are Sami Ben Khemais Essid and Mehdi Kammoun, both of whom were convicted by Italian courts for their participation in al Qaeda's operations in Italy. Essid was the head of al Qaeda in Italy before his arrest. According to the US State Department and other sources, Essid plotted to attack the US Embassy in Rome in early 2001. Both Essid and Kammoun were convicted in Italy of terrorism charges, deported to Tunisia for further imprisonment, but released in 2011 after the Tunisian revolution.

After the Sept. 14, 2012 assault on the US Embassy in Tunis, the Tunisian government imprisoned numerous Ansar al Sharia members. One of them is Bilel Chaouachi, a young imam who has openly praised Osama bin Laden and Ayman al Zawahiri.

On Dec. 21, 2012, the Tunisian government announced that it had arrested members of an al Qaeda terrorist cell who had been trained by al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and "were active within" Ansar al Sharia Tunisia.

Faqir Mohammed. Image courtesy of AfPax Insider.

Faqir Mohammed, the former emir in Bajaur of the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, has returned to the fold after his dismissal a year ago for conducting negotiations with the Pakistani government. Faqir is close to al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri.

Faqir recently appeared on a videotape with Maulvi Abu Bakr, the new emir for the Taliban in the Pakistani tribal agency of Bajaur, along with four commanders identified as "Brother Ahmad," Sheikh Osama, Maulana Abdullah, and Qari Zahid. The videotape, which was produced by the Taliban's Umar Studio sometime in December 2012, was released on the Jamia Hafsa Urdu Forum, a pro-al Qaeda and Taliban website, on Jan. 22. A translation of the videotape was obtained by The Long War Journal.

The video begins with an unidentified interviewer asking Faqir if the "minor differences among the mujahideen in the tribal area of Bajaur Agency" have been resolved, and if Abu Bakr is indeed the new Taliban leader for the agency.

Faqir responds by saying that "it is a fact that there were differences among the mujahideen of Bajaur area," but the differences were resolved after Hakeemullah Mehsud, the overall emir of the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, and Mullah Fazlullah, the Taliban emir for the Swat Valley, "sent a powerful and independent delegation to us." Faqir, who also at one time served as the Taliban's deputy leader under Baitullah Mehsud and then Hakeemullah, described Fazlullah as "the chief organizer of our movement."

Faqir confirmed that Abu Bakr is the new emir for Bajaur. Abu Bakr replaced Mullah Dadullah, who was killed in a US airstrike in the eastern Afghan province of Kunar in August 2012. Dadullah took over the Taliban in Bajaur after a long-running dispute with Faqir led to the latter's dismissal in March 2012. Faqir was accused of both not fighting hard enough against Pakistani forces and negotiating with the government without approval from the top leadership.

Abu Bakr also confirmed that he is the emir in Bajaur and that "the differences have been resolved as a result of the efforts of the delegation."

In addition, Abu Bakr affirmed that the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan seeks to wage jihad and establish a caliphate by force, which is a goal of al Qaeda.

"We will continue fighting until we achieve our current objectives of Sharia, caliphate, jihad, honor and our sacrifices ..." he said. He also indicated that there are foreign fighters in the ranks, but was not specific.

Pakistani Taliban far from disorganized and defeated

Faqir's abrupt dismissal last spring was considered by some analysts to indicate a major division within the Taliban ranks. Some local Taliban leaders in Bajaur were unhappy that Faqir had been fired, and warned it might lead to infighting. Ihsanullah Ihsan, the Taliban's top spokesman, announced Faqir's dismissal in an offhand manner in March 2012.

"The TTP [Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan or Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan] shura met with its central emir Hakeemullah Mehsud in the chair," Ihsanullah Ihsan, the Taliban's top spokesman said at the time. "It felt that the organization no more required the role of Maulvi Faqir Mohammad as naib [deputy] emir. From today, he will be considered a common fighter and will no longer enjoy the status of TTP naib emir."

Faqir led the Taliban in Bajaur for years, and he is also tied to some of al Qaeda's top leaders, including the group's emir, Ayman al Zawahiri. In the past, Faqir sheltered Ayman al Zawahiri and other senior al Qaeda leaders; one of the first US drone strikes in Pakistan targeted Zawahiri and other top commanders in an area controlled by Faqir.

But Faqir's return to the Taliban fold shows that the group is capable of managing internal divisions and reconciling them. Faqir noted this in the recent videotape, when he said "they are militants and militant work certainly has differences."

Additionally, the videotape shows that the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan is far from defeated, disorganized, and rife with leadership disputes, as the Pakistani government has claimed. Hakeemullah and Fazlullah were able to convene the Taliban's shura, send a delegation to Bajaur to mediate the dispute, and organize the reconciliation of the Taliban factions in the tribal agencies.

Ansar al Sharia Egypt, an extremist group headed by an al Qaeda-allied jihadist, has called on Muslims to pray for a jihadist victory in Mali and to "[q]uickly offer material and moral support for the Muslim Mali people." The group's statement, which was authored by an Egyptian Salafist named Jalaluddin Abu al Fotouh and released online in late January, was translated by the SITE Intelligence Group.

Al Fotouh argues that France's "real motives" for the war, which is "supported by Crusader Europe and tyrannical America and the rest of the forces of evil against the Muslims in Mali," are to prevent the implementation of sharia law. This is a common argument advanced by Salafi Jihadists in the wake of France's intervention.

"The forces of evil and disbelief cannot be silent about the establishment of a real Islamic State that is committed to the Qur'an and the Sunnah [traditions of the Prophet Muhammad], especially regarding its foreign relations with the countries of the world," Al Fotouh claims, according to SITE's translation. "They want Mali to be subordinate, servile, and weak and frail so as to be able to loot its resources and steal its wealth."

In a separate entry on Ansar al Sharia Egypt's Facebook page earlier in January, the group threatened France by re-posting an image of the Eiffel Tower being attacked. The graphic was originally produced on another jihadist web site. An Air France airliner can be seen approaching the tower from the left.

The Long War Journal captured a screen shot of the image, which is reproduced at the beginning of this article.

The Arabic text of the image, which can be seen at the top of this article, reads: "France, beware! We are able to carry this out and it would not be the first time." According to a translation obtained by The Long War Journal, Ansar al Sharia Egypt added a caption to its Facebook post that reads, "Is France unaware of who it is fighting?"

Leadership of Ansar al Sharia Egypt

Ansar al Sharia Egypt is led by Ahmed Ashush, who does not hide his allegiance to al Qaeda. In an interview with the Cairo-based publication Al Shuruq al Jadid late last year, Ashush said he was "honored to be an extension of the al Qaeda organization in its beliefs, principles, and concepts."

"We must perpetuate [Osama] bin Laden whether alive or dead," Ashush explained. "If the revolutions of the Arab Spring were fair they would have adopted bin Laden as the symbol of heroism and sacrifice." Ashush called al Qaeda the "House of Honor," the "Title of Glory," and the "Home of the Nation's Dignity."

Ashush adamantly defended al Qaeda's jihad. "We are at war with the United States and Israel and all the Worldly Rulers whom they appointed in the countries of the Muslims to carry out their imperialist blueprint in our countries," Ashush added.

Ashush's ties to al Qaeda date to the early 1990s, when he traveled to Afghanistan. Ashush befriended Abu Hafs al Masri, who went on to become al Qaeda's military chief before he was killed in late 2001, and other senior al Qaeda figures. Ashush forged a lasting relationship with the Zawahiri brothers. He served in the Egyptian Islamic Jihad (EIJ), headed by Ayman al Zawahiri (now the emir of al Qaeda), before helping to establish his own offshoot terrorist organization.

Ashush was arrested in the 1990s and imprisoned inside Egypt until after the fall of Hosni Mubarak's regime. In 2007, Ashush defended al Qaeda's violence from within prison. He was one of the key signatories on a letter rebutting Sayyid Imam al Sharif's (also known as Dr. Fadl) critique of al Qaeda's approach to waging jihad. Another of the signatories was Mohammed al Zawahiri, the younger brother of al Qaeda's emir, who had served as a senior EIJ leader before his arrest in the late 1990s. Mohammed al Zawahiri was also freed from prison in the wake of the Egyptian revolution.

Since both the younger Zawahiri and Ashush were freed from prison, the two have often worked together, as can be seen in numerous jihadist videos and on Ansar al Sharia Egypt's Facebook page.

Mohammed al Zawahiri (right, in front of an al Qaeda in Iraq flag), Sheikh 'Adil Shehato (center, bottom), and Ahmad Ashush (center, speaking on microphone), from an As Sahab video released on Sept. 10, 2012.

Ayman al Zawahiri is so fond of Ashush that clips of the Ansar al Sharia Egypt leader are frequently included in al Qaeda's videos. A Sept. 10, 2012 video starring al Qaeda's emir featured a clip of Ashush praising Osama bin Laden. A two-part al Qaeda video released on Oct. 24 included nine video clips showing Ashush and other Egyptian jihadists. Mohammed al Zawahiri can be seen listening to Ashush's pro-al Qaeda sermons in the same clips.

Ansar al Sharia Egypt's Facebook page features Mohammed al Zawahiri in several posts. Some of the posts show the younger Zawahiri's protest outside the French Embassy in Cairo in January. Mohammed al Zawahiri has criticized the French intervention in Mali and threatened the West with retaliation.

The protest orchestrated by Mohammed al Zawahiri outside the French Embassy was poorly attended, with perhaps hundreds or maybe one thousand demonstrators in attendance. In fact, Ansar al Sharia Egypt has criticized Islamist groups for not doing more to support Zawahiri's demonstration.

It is a "scandal" that "many of the Islamic movements..didn't participate in the peaceful protest in front of the French embassy in Cairo, and all of those who attended the protest were no more than a thousand," Jalaluddin Abu al Fotouh writes in Ansar al Sharia Egypt's statement on Mali.

Ansar al Sharia Egypt, Ahmed Ashush, and Mohammed al Zawahiri will undoubtedly continue to call for jihad in Mali and threaten the West.

The Taliban claimed credit for today's deadly suicide assault on a Pakistani military checkpoint in the northwestern district of Lakki Markat. The Taliban claimed the attack was carried out to avenge the deaths of commanders who were killed in recent US drone strikes in Pakistan's Taliban-controlled tribal areas.

The heavily-armed suicide assault team stormed a military checkpoint in the Serai Naurang area of Lakki Marwat district. Thirteen Pakistani military personnel, 11 civilians, and 12 Taliban fighters are reported to have been killed during the heavy fighting, according to Dawn. The civilians are said to have died after the suicide bomber ran into a home during the fighting and detonated his vest, killing 10 members of a family, including three children.

Taliban spokesman Ihsanullah Ihsan claimed the attack, but denied that 12 of his fighters were killed. Ihsan said the attack was executed to avenge the deaths of two senior Movement of the Taliban commanders, Faisal Khan and Toofani, who were killed in drone strikes in early January.

"We sent only four suicide bombers to attack this checkpost. We attacked it to avenge the killing of two of our friends in a recent drone strike," Ihsan told AFP.

"Pakistan has been co-operating with the US in its drone strikes that killed our two senior commanders, Faisal Khan and Toofani, and the attack on military camp was the revenge of their killing," Ihsan also said, according to Reuters.

Toofani, who was also known as Wali Mohammed, is said to have directed suicide operations for the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan. He was killed in a US drone strike in South Waziristan on Jan. 6.

Faisal Khan, who was said to be a senior commander in the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, was killed in a US drone strike along with two Uzbek fighters in the Mir Ali area of North Waziristan on Jan. 3.

The US has carried out seven drone strikes in Pakistan so far this year. The last recorded strike took place on Jan. 10. In addition to Toofani and Khan, the US killed Mullah Nazir, the head of the Taliban in the Wazir areas of South Waziristan. Although Nazir's group is not part of the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, it shelters the group as well as al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations.

An al Qaeda in Iraq suicide assault team attacked an Iraqi police headquarters in the northern flashpoint city of Kirkuk today. The tactic is being employed with increasing frequency by al Qaeda and its affiliates and allies in all of the major theaters of the Long War.

The attack began when a suicide bomber drove a car packed with explosives into the main gate of a police headquarters in Kirkuk. After the blast breached the entrance, a small team of fighters wearing police uniforms and armed with suicide vests, assault rifles, and hand grenades attempted to storm the compound.

Iraqi forces then engaged and killed the al Qaeda assault team, which was thought to be made of up two or three fighters, before they could reach the main building. Estimates of casualties from the assault have varied, from between 16 to 33 people killed, including four policemen, and dozens wounded, including a police brigadier. Many civilians were killed in the initial blast, which also heavily damaged the surrounding area.

Iraqi military officers told AFP that they believe the assault team was attempting to free al Qaeda prisoners being held at the facility. Al Qaeda in Iraq has attacked multiple prisons and freed scores of prisoners as part of its "Destroying the Walls" campaign, which was announced by the group's emir, Sheikh Mujahid Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, on July 21, 2012.

Kirkuk is in an area where ethnic tensions persist between Sunnis, Kurds, and Turkmen. The Kurdish Regional Government wants to annex Kirkuk into its semiautonomous state, but the central Iraqi government has resisted such moves. Al Qaeda in Iraq has exploited these fault lines by conducting attacks such as the one today.

Security in Iraq has slowly deteriorated after the withdrawal of the US military at the end of 2011. While al Qaeda in Iraq does not openly control territory as it did in 2007, before US and Iraqi forces drove it from strongholds throughout the country, the terror group can still organize and execute large-scale attacks, such as a March 2012 raid in Haditha that killed 27 Iraqi policemen, including two commanders. The group has also launched a number of coordinated attacks, including large-scale bombings, in multiple cities throughout Iraq. Furthermore, al Qaeda has been empowered by recent unrest in Syria, regenerating under a new banner, that of the Al Nusrah Front for the People of the Levant, one of the most prominent rebel groups fighting the regime of Bashar al Assad.

The suicide assault is a common jihadist tactic

Today's suicide assault is the latest in a series of similar attacks in the theaters of the Long War by al Qaeda and its affiliates and allies operating in South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.

The Taliban and the Haqqani Network frequently use the tactic to strike at Coalition and Afghan bases, ministries, police and military headquarters, and other high-value targets such as hotels. In one of the most successful attacks, in September 2012, a suicide assault team attacked Camp Bastion in Helmand province. The 15-man Taliban team penetrated the perimeter at the airbase, destroyed six USMC Harriers and damaged two more, and killed the squadron commander and a sergeant. In the course of the assault, 14 of the 15 members of the assault team were killed, while the last was wounded and captured. Camp Bastion is a sprawling military base shared by US Marines and British troops that is located in the middle of the Dashti Margo desert in Helmand province.

Jihadists have also conducted multiple suicide assaults in Pakistan. Just yesterday, a suicide assault team overran a military outpost in Lakki Marwat, killing 13 soldiers and 10 civilians. In one of the most brazen attacks, in October 2009, a suicide assault team stormed the Pakistani Army General Headquarters in Rawalpindi, taking control of several buildings and killing two senior officers before being killed.

In India, the Lashkar-e-Taiba, an al Qaeda-linked group that is backed by the Pakistani military and its intelligence branch, the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate, shut down the city of Mumbai for three days in 2008 as a suicide assault team fanned out across the city and attacked hotels, a train station, a Jewish center, and other targets. One hundred and seventy-six people were killed during the 60-hour-long battle.

In Syria, the Al Nusrah Front for the People of the Levant, al Qaeda in Iraq's affiliate, has launched multiple suicide assaults on military and intelligence headquarters in Damascus and elsewhere, including one in late January, in which five suicide bombers attacked a base near the Golan Heights.

In the Egyptian Sinai, jihadists launched a complex attack at night on a border crossing between Israel, Egypt, and the Gaza Strip in August 2012. The terrorists killed 16 Egyptian soldiers and overran their base, seized two Egyptian armored personnel carriers, attacked the border checkpoint, and penetrated more than a half mile into Israeli territory. Israeli soldiers and the Israeli air force engaged and killed the terrorists who had entered the country. Additionally, a jihadist group attacked the Multinational Force & Observers base in the Gora region in September 2012.

And last month in Algeria, a suicide assault team from the al-Mua'qi'oon Biddam, or Those who sign with Blood Brigade, took control of a natural gas facility at In Amenas, killing 38 foreigners during the several-day-long battle. Mokhtar Belmokhtar, the leader of the group, claimed the attack in al Qaeda's name. Belmokhtar has longstanding ties to al Qaeda and its affiliate in North Africa, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.

Sources:

Car bomb and attack on north Iraq police HQ kills 30, AFP
Deadly suicide bomb attacks rock Iraq's Kirkuk, Xinhua
Attackers kill 33 at police HQ in disputed Iraqi city, Reuters

Al Qaeda in Iraq executed its second major suicide attack against Iraqi security personnel in two days. Today, a suicide bomber attacked members of the Awakening in Taji, a city just north of Baghdad.

The suicide bomber detonated his vest in the midst of the anti-al Qaeda Awakening fighters as they were collecting their salaries. Nineteen Awakening members and three Iraqi soldiers were killed in the blast, and 44 more people were wounded, according to reports.

The Awakening, which gained critical momentum in the fall of 2006 in the western province of Anbar, was formed by Sunni tribes to fight al Qaeda in Iraq. The movement rapidly expanded to other areas of Iraq, and also included Shia and other ethnic groups. Awakening forces, which in the past were sometimes referred to as the Sons of Iraq and Concerned Local Citizens, were supported by the US and the Iraqi government and military, and were instrumental in helping to drive al Qaeda from cities and towns during the "surge" in 2007 and 2008.

Al Qaeda in Iraq has frequently targeted Awakening leaders and fighters for their opposition to the terror group. Most recently, on Jan. 15 a suicide bomber killed Sheikh Aifan Sadoun Aifan al-Issawi, who was a member of parliament and a prominent Awakening leader in Fallujah, along with five Awakening fighters in an attack near that city. Several years earlier, Sheikh Abdul Sattar Abu Risha, the founder of the Awakening in Ramadi who organized the first effective resistance to al Qaeda, was killed in a car bombing outside of his home in September 2007.

Today's suicide attack is the second against Iraqi security personnel in Taji in the past two weeks. On Jan. 22, a suicide bomber killed seven people in an attack outside an Iraqi military base in the city.

The suicide attack in Taji is also the second in Iraq in the past two days. Yesterday, an al Qaeda in Iraq suicide assault team attacked a police headquarters in Kirkuk in an apparent attempt to free prisoners being held there. More than 16 people were killed in the deadly attack.

The Al Nusrah Front is under the command Abu Du'a (a.k.a. Abu Bakr al Baghdadi al Husseini al Qurshi), the emir of al Qaeda in Iraq, according to the US State Department, which which designated Al Nusrah as a Foreign Terrorist Organization in December 2012. The group has claimed credit for 48 of the 58 suicide attacks that have taken place in Syria since December 2011. Several of those attacks were complex suicide assaults on heavily defended targets.

Sources:

Suicide blast near Baghdad kills 22, injures 44, AFP
Suicide bomber kills over a dozen in Iraq, Al Jazeera
Iraq suicide blast kills 22 north of Baghdad, Associated Press

Bulgaria is prepared to release an investigative report that will blame Hezbollah and Iran for the Burgas terror attack that killed five Israeli tourists and one Bulgarian national.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the report, which comes nearly seven months after the attack, will be released sometime this week. On Tuesday, Bulgaria's Interior Minister will brief senior members of the Bulgarian government on the report.

The impending report will likely serve as a strong catalyst for those pushing to have the European Union designate Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. In addition, it will provide vindication to Israel, which had declared immediately after the attack that Hezbollah and Iran were responsible.

The latest news regarding the investigation comes just a few weeks after Bulgaria's Foreign Minister briefed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Shimon Peres on the investigation. At the time of the visit, Reuters reported that political sources in Bulgaria believed that the results of the inquiry could be released as early as Feb. 5.

Not long after this meeting, Israel's Channel 2 reported that Bulgaria would blame Hezbollah for the attack, but Bulgaria's Foreign Ministry denied the report. On Jan. 22, however, just five days after Israeli officials were briefed, Al Hayat reported that Bulgaria had told European officials that Hezbollah was responsible.

The Burgas attack

On July 18, 2012, the 18th anniversary of the Buenos Aires AMIA bombing, a bomb (it is unclear if it was a suicide bomber) exploded as Israeli tourists boarded buses at the airport in Burgas, Bulgaria. Five Israelis and one Bulgarian national were killed in the attack, which wounded dozens.

While Bulgaria's Interior Minister said that the bombing was "a deliberate attack," Israeli officials quickly pointed the finger at Iran and Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's first statement declared: "All signs point towards Iran."

Iran's Ambassador to the United Nations Mohammad Khazaee countered by saying Israel had carried out the attack. "Such [a] terrorist operation could only be planned and carried out by the same regime whose short history is full of state terrorism operations and assassinations aimed at implicating others for narrow political gains," he claimed.

Despite Iranian allegations, American and Israeli officials were soon fairly certain that the attack had been carried out by Hezbollah with direction from Iran. "Israeli intelligence has evidence of many telephone calls between Lebanon and Burgas in the two months before the bombing... with the volume intensifying in the three days leading up to it," the New York Times reported in early August.

Since May 2011, over 20 attacks tied to Iran and Hezbollah against Israelis and Jews abroad have been thwarted.

From left to right: Abdul Hakeem, Adnan Rasheed, and Yassin Chouka. Image from the SITE Intelligence Group..

In a recent video, the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan announced the formation of the Ansar al Aseer, a unit tasked to free jihadist prisoners and support their families. The video features Adnan Rasheed, a dangerous Pakistani jihadist who was freed in a jailbreak last year; Yassin Chouka, a wanted German commander in the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan; and Abdul Hakeem, a Russian IMU member.

The video, which was released on jihadist Internet forums on Jan. 29 and obtained and translated by the SITE Intelligence Group, was co-produced by Umar Media and Jundallah Studio, the media arms of the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, respectively. The video includes English subtitles.

Rasheed, Chouka, and Hakeem were videotaped reading prepared statements while seated under a tree. Rasheed led off by announcing the formation of the Ansar al Aseer, defining its mission, and praising the Taliban for his release.

"The first purpose of this group is to make your release possible by all means," Rasheed said. "And the second purpose is to take care of you in jail, provide for your families, fulfill your needs and necessities and arrange finances for your trials. And finally the third purpose is to take revenge against the enemies."

"You should send us the names and addresses of those who serve the police, ISI, army, as well as those jail wardens, officers and their aides and spies, plus the names of those who dared to harass your families and your old parents and those who still treat you inhumanely," he continued. "We, the mujahideen in Khorasan, promise you that we will, Allah willing, take revenge against them."

He also warned the Pakistani security forces against harassing the families of jihadist prisoners, and said that they "are all on our hit list."

Rasheed is a Pakistani terrorist who was involved in the Dec. 14, 2003 assassination attempt against then-President Pervez Musharraf. A member of the Pakistani Air Force, Rasheed was sentenced to death for his role in the assassination attempt.

Rasheed worked for Amjad Farooqi, the Pakistani terrorist who engineered the two assassination attempts against Musharraf in December 2003 at the behest of al Qaeda leader Abu Faraj al Libi; Farooqi is suspected of involvement in other terror attacks as well. Farooqi was a member of the Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan; the Harkat-ul-Ansar and its successor, the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen; Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami; and Jaish-e-Mohammed. He served as a close aide to Qari Saifullah Akhtar, the leader of the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami. In addition, Farooqi served as the group's representative to al Qaeda's International Islamic Front.

On April 15, 2012, the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan launched a successful operation to free Rasheed and nearly 400 prisoners, including an estimated 200 Taliban fighters and jihadists, being held at a prison in Bannu. The operation was directed by Hakkemullah Mehsud, the emir of the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, and Waliur Rehman Mehsud, the group's emir for South Waziristan. More than 150 fighters assaulted the prison. Rasheed was later featured in a videotape celebrating the jailbreak.

Next to speak on the videotape announcing the formation of the Ansar al Aseer is Abdul Hakeem, a previously unknown Russian operative in the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. Hakeem chastised the Muslim Ummah, or community, for doing nothing to further the release of prisoners.

"Our beloved brothers and sisters have had to live in captivity," Hakeem complained. "When they spit, they spit blood. Yet this 1.5 billion-strong Ummah is doing nothing about it."

Hakeem also claimed he was detained by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate, or ISI, and accused it of working in concert with the US.

"When I was in jail I witnessed how hypocritical the ISI agents were," he said. "This anti-Islamist institute of Pakistan fights against the Muslims standing shoulder to shoulder with the USA. When they interrogated us these two devils would work together."

Yassin Chouka praised jihadists who are in prison, but his statement takes a considerably more conciliatory position toward Muslims "who have not yet dedicated their love to the Muslim prisoners worldwide" than does Hakeem's.

"Look into your hearts and see whom you have dedicated your love to, whom you hate and whom you love," he advised. "Let me give you a piece of advice: Force your unconcerned soul to love the Muslim captives around the world."

Chouka, better known as Abu Ibrahim al Almani, is a German citizen originally from Morocco who, along with his brother Mounir, features frequently in the IMU's propaganda. In February 2011, Chouka released a report that described his travels from Europe to Pakistan, which included a stop in Yemen and several meetings with Anwar al Awlaki, the American-born terrorist who served as a senior ideologue and operational commander for al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula before his death in a Predator strike. Both of the Chouka brothers were added to the US's list of Specially Designated Global Terrorists in January 2012. [For more information on the Choukas, see LWJ report, US adds IMU, IJU operatives to list of global terrorists].

On Monday evening, the Long War Journal reported that Bulgaria was preparing "to release an investigative report that will blame Hezbollah and Iran for the Burgas terror attack that killed five Israeli tourists and one Bulgarian national." Today, Bulgaria's Interior Minister Tsvetan Tsvetanov announced that the identity of three of those involved in the attack is known and that at least two of them are members of Hezbollah.

"We have followed their entire activities in Australia and Canada so we have information about financing and their membership in Hezbollah. A reasonable assumption can be made that the two of them were members of the militant wing of Hezbollah," Tsvetanov said.

One of the two Hezbollah members was said to have lived in Lebanon since 2006, while the other had been living there since 2010. According to Tsvetanov, the driver's licenses, some of which have been publicly released, were forged in Lebanon, but the cell members entered Europe using genuine passports from Canada and Australia.

Regarding the forged driver's licenses from Lebanon, Europol, the European Union's law enforcement agency, said that they had come from the "same source." On Tuesday afternoon, Canadian Foreign Minister John Baird told reporters that a Canadian-Lebanese dual national was involved in the attack and is now at large in Lebanon.

Europol, which aided in the investigation, also announced on Tuesday that it did not believe the attack was carried out by a suicide bomber. "[A]nalysis of the bomb scene evidence by the Europol expert, including shrapnel from the improvised explosive device (IED), proved otherwise. It confirmed that the device had been remotely detonated and strongly suggested, therefore, that more than one person was responsible for the attack," a Europol statement said.

Bulgaria's charge against Hezbollah will likely serve as a strong catalyst for those pushing to have the European Union designate Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. In addition, it will provide vindication to Israel, which had declared immediately after the attack that Hezbollah and Iran were responsible.

Shortly after news of Bulgaria's claim against Hezbollah spread, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a statement that said: "The Bulgarian findings announced today are clear: Hezbollah was directly responsible for the atrocity. There is only one Hezbollah. It is one organization with one leadership. This is yet a further corroboration of what we have already known, that Hezbollah and its Iranian patrons are orchestrating a worldwide campaign of terror that is spanning countries and continents."

As of January 2012, Israeli intelligence believed that "Iran and Hezbollah have...planted roughly 40 terrorist sleeper cells across the globe, ready to hit Israeli and Jewish targets."

A statement from John Brennan on Tuesday praised Bulgarian authorities for conducting a "professional and comprehensive investigation."

"Bulgaria's investigation exposes Hizballah for what it is - a terrorist group that is willing to recklessly attack innocent men, women, and children, and that poses a real and growing threat not only to Europe, but to the rest of the world," Brennan's statement, issued by the White House, said.

Secretary of State John Kerry similarly said: "The finding is clear and unequivocal: Lebanese Hizballah was responsible for this deadly assault on European soil. We condemn Hizballah in the strongest terms for an attack which bears striking similarities to other disrupted plots of the last year."

Hezbollah officials declined to comment on the news when asked by the Associated Press on Tuesday. A statement from Catherine Ashton's spokesperson said that Ashton, the European Union's high representative for foreign policy, had taken note of the results of the Bulgarian investigation and that "the implications of the investigation need to be assessed seriously."

Meanwhile, Canada's Foreign Minister John Baird called on the EU to designate Hezbollah as a terror organization: "We urge the European Union and all partners who have not already done so to list Hezbollah as a terrorist entity and prosecute terrorist acts committed by this inhumane organization to the fullest possible extent."

Bulgaria's Foreign Minister appeared open to this as he told Al Arabiya on Tuesday that "we have very strong evidence that those who planned and executed the bombing are from the military wing of Hezbollah...we will take what we have to our colleagues at the EU and discuss with them on what position we can take to make sure that don't happen again."

On Tuesday afternoon, Lebanon's Prime Minister Najib Mikati said that his country was prepared to aid Bulgaria in the rest of its investigation. Security at the Bulgarian embassy in Lebanon was heightened following the release of the investigation's results, according to Sofia News Agency.

The Burgas attack

On July 18, 2012, the 18th anniversary of the Buenos Aires AMIA bombing, a bomb (it is unclear if it was a suicide bomber) exploded as Israeli tourists boarded buses at the airport in Burgas, Bulgaria. Five Israelis and one Bulgarian national were killed in the attack, which wounded dozens.

While Bulgaria's Interior Minister said that the bombing was "a deliberate attack," Israeli officials quickly pointed the finger at Iran and Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's soon declared: "I know based on absolutely rock-solid intelligence that this is Hezbollah and this is something that Iran knows about very, very well."

Past Iranian and Hezbollah attacks

According to the NYPD's Intelligence Division, Iran has "sharply increased its operational tempo and its willingness to conduct terrorist attacks targeting Israeli interests and the International Jewish community worldwide." Fortunately, since May 2011, over 20 attacks tied to Iran and Hezbollah against Israelis and Jews abroad have been thwarted. These thwarted attacks, not all of which have been publicly reported, have taken place in Cyprus, Turkey, Kenya, India, Thailand, and Azerbaijan, among others.

While the recent uptick in attempted plots is noteworthy, Iran and Hezbollah have a notorious history of attempting and carrying out attacks against Jews and Israelis abroad.

For example, on March 17, 1992, a truck filled with explosives was driven into the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The attack killed 29 people, injured over 240, and "severely damaged a nearby church, school, and retirement home." The Islamic Jihad Organization, which is another name for Hezbollah, took responsibility for the attack and even "released a videotape of the Israeli Embassy taken during surveillance before the bombing." While the claim of responsibility was noteworthy, investigators, in particular those from Israel and the United States, suspected a far more powerful actor was behind the attack, specifically Iran.

Ronen Bergman, one of the leading Israeli investigative journalists, recounts some of the evidence against Iran and Hezbollah in his book, The Secret War with Iran: The 30-Year Clandestine Struggle Against the World's Most Dangerous Terrorist Power.

According to Bergman, three days before the bombing in 1992, the National Security Agency (NSA), intercepted a message from the Iranian embassy in Moscow, which "contained clear signs of awareness of an impending attack on an Israeli legation in South America." The intercept, however, was not translated in real-time, and was only discovered in the post-attack investigation. Additional intercepts from the Iranian embassies in Argentina and Brazil also "appeared in retrospect to contain coded signals about the approaching operation." While these provided strong evidence of an Iranian hand in the attack, American investigators soon discovered "not a smoking gun, but a blazing cannon," according to a Mossad official. The blazing cannon was a phone conversation between Imad Mughniyeh and Talal Hamiyah, a senior member of Hezbollah, who is now the head of Hezbollah's External Security Organization, which is "responsible for the planning, coordination, and execution of terrorist attacks outside of Lebanon." In the conversation, Hamiyah is heard rejoicing over "our project in Argentina," in addition to mocking the Shin Bet, also known as the Israel Security Agency.

A little over two years later, on July 18, 1994, a van filled with explosives was blown up outside the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA), the Jewish Community Center in Buenos Aires. The attack killed at least 85 people, and wounded hundreds more. Although Israeli intelligence officials were at first "shocked" by the attack, they soon discovered that those behind the attack were also those behind the 1992 bombing, according to Ronen Bergman.

Al Qaeda announced the death of Abd el Kader Mahmoud Mohamed el Sayed, a longtime senior jihadist leader and military commander who was killed in a drone strike in Pakistan sometime in the spring of 2012. El Sayed, also known as Abu Saleh al Masri, had been a member of al Qaeda since the early 1990s and had served in multiple jihadist theaters, including in Italy. He commanded al Qaeda forces along the Afghan-Pakistan border before being killed along with his son.

The Al-Fajr Media Center, which distributes al Qaeda's propaganda, released a martyrdom statement and biography of el Sayed on jihadist Internet forums on Jan. 29 that was obtained and translated by the SITE Intelligence Group. The statement was written by Muhammad bin Mahmoud al Bahtiti, supposedly a close friend of the slain al Qaeda leader.

El Sayed was added to the US's list of Specially Designated Global Terrorists as well as the United Nations Al Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions list in April 2002. According to the UN, el Sayed was "the organizer of an al Qaeda cell in Milan, Italy."

"He had been in contact with international terrorist leaders and was sent to Milan, Italy, by Ayman Muhammed Rabi al Zawahiri (the current emir of al Qaeda) to reorganize the terrorist group there," the UN stated.

"El Sayed was indicted for participation in a criminal conspiracy to traffic arms, explosives, chemical weapons and identity papers, and for aiding illegal immigration," the UN continued. "He was sentenced to eight years imprisonment in Italy for criminal conspiracy to handle stolen goods and facilitate illegal immigration on 2 February 2004."

Additionally, el Sayed was "convicted in Egypt for the 1997 massacre in Luxor, Egypt, in which 58 tourists were killed," according to the UN.

While in Italy, el Sayed was associated with the Via Quaranta mosque and the Islamic Cultural Institute, two radical Islamist centers linked to terror plots. El Sayed was recorded by Italian intelligence several times while discussing terrorist plots against the West. In one conversation, he was recorded while speaking to Abd al Salam al Hilah, a member of Yemen's Political Security Organization (PSO) and a current Guantanamo detainee, who "had foreknowledge of the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, the 2000 attack on the UK Embassy in Sanaa...the 2000 attack on the USS COLE, a planned attack on the US or British Embassy in Sanaa that was to occur in October 2002, and probably the 11 September 2001 terrorist attack," according to a leaked Guantanamo intelligence assessment. That same assessment described el Sayed as Osama bin Laden's "ambassador" to Italy and the Egyptian Islamic Jihad's "top document forger." [For more information, see LWJ report, Yemeni government official doubled as al Qaeda operative, leaked assessment shows.]

A well-traveled, seasoned jihadist leader

In his eulogy, al Bahtiti referred to el Sayed as "the mountain of jihad and the master of the Mujahideen." According to al Bahtiti, el Sayed waged jihad in Egypt, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Yemen, Iran, and Pakistan over the course of two decades.

El Sayed traveled to Afghanistan in 1990 to wage jihad, and presumably met with top al Qaeda leaders, as al Bahtiti mentions that el Sayed was able to call on Zawahiri for help when being detained in Saudi Arabia.

The timeline of el Sayed's travels is unclear, as al Bahtiti does not provide a direct chronology of events. Al Bahtiti lists "some of the landmarks through which our martyr passed in his emigration and jihad."

In Egypt, el Sayed "was one of first in doing jihad and fighting the defunct Mubarak regime ...." El Sayed "joined the al-Jihad group," a reference to the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, which merged with al Qaeda in the 1990s. As leader in the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, el Sayed "was responsible for the documents apparatus of the group, and to him - after Allah - comes much of the credit for many of the works that the group had done to resist this apostate corrupt regime."

At some point in the early 1990s, el Sayed attempted to travel to Syria along with his brother, "the great Mujahid Sheikh Madine (or Ja'afar)", apparently via Saudi Arabia, but they were detained by Saudi intelligence. El Sayed escaped custody, but his brother was deported to Egypt and detained. The brother appears to have been one of hundreds of jiahdists who were released during the unrest that followed the fall of the Mubarak regime in the so-called Arab Spring.

After his escape from Saudi custody, el Sayed was able to call "Sheikh Doctor Ayman al Zawahiri in Peshawar and told him what happened," and Zawahiri "arranged for [al Sayed] passage from Saudi Arabia ...," according to al Bahtiti.

Sometime "in the mid-nineties," el Sayed traveled to Syria "to assist his Palestinian brothers in their jihad against the Jews." El Sayed went to Syria to do "a job that was given to them by the group," presumably al Qaeda or the Egyptian Islamic Jihad.

While in Syria, he and two other al Qaeda operatives, Abu Ayman al Masri and Maysara al Masri, as well as several Palestinians, were detained by that country's intelligence services. But the jihadists were later released by the Syrian government.

After leaving Syria, he and his family traveled to Yemen, but "he tired of Yemen and indeed the entire land, and they found not one safe inch where they could be sure of the safety of their souls, their family and their money."

In 1998, el Sayed and his family moved to Italy, where he "worked as an imam for a mosque in Milan." He left Italy while under observation by Italian intelligence officials, and traveled to Afghanistan in July 2001, just two months prior to the Sept. 11 attack on the US. Al Bahtiti claimed that el Sayed had no foreknowledge of the Sept. 11 attack and that his arrival in Afghanistan was a coincidence.

According to al Bahtiti, Osama bin Laden, Zawahiri, and Mohammed Atef, al Qaeda's military commander who was killed in November 2001, and other "emigrant brothers" had "rejoiced" at his arrival. El Sayed then officially "pledged allegiance to Sheikh Osama," despite the fact that he served as an al Qaeda operative for years.

El Sayed traveled to Afghanistan with Abu Ayyub al Masri, the Egyptian al Qaeda leader who became the emir of al Qaeda in Iraq after Abu Musab al Zarqawi was killed by the US in June 2006. Like el Sayed, Abu Ayyub al Masri was a close associate of Zawahiri.

After the US invasion of Afghanistan in the fall of 2001, el Sayed left Afghanistan along with other al Qaeda leaders.

"So he went to neighboring Pakistan and stayed in it for a period of time aiding the mujahideen brothers and traveling to different locations, then after he finished his job and fulfilled his duty, he went to Iran," al Bahtiti said.

Once in Iran, el Sayed was placed under protective custody along with his family and other al Qaeda leaders and operatives. He was in custody for eight years, and then released by Iran. Al Qaeda leaders and operatives are known to shelter in Iran under a loose form of house arrest by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and move from there into Afghanistan, Pakistan, and other countries.

Commander of al Qaeda combat unit along Afghan-Pakistan border

After leaving Iran, el Sayed traveled to Pakistan's tribal agency of South Waziristan, a bastion for al Qaeda, the Taliban, and a host of jihadist groups. Once there, he took command of an al Qaeda fighting unit that operated against US and NATO forces in Paktika province in Afghanistan.

"After he reached Waziristan, he took charge of the [Angoor Ada] front in Afghanistan, and Allah granted him success in inflicting grave damage to the Crusader enemy, and he had many jihadi activities and actions," the martyrdom statement said.

Al Qaeda is known to operate military units in eastern Afghanistan, under the aegis of the Lashkar al Zil, or the Shadow Army. Al Qaeda occasionally releases martyrdom statements of fighters killed in eastern Afghanistan, and US special operations forces have conducted numerous raids against al Qaeda operatives in Paktika province over the past several years. Additionally, a document seized at Osama bin Laden's safe house in Abbottabad, Pakistan, stated that al Qaeda had several "companies" that operate in Pakistan's tribal areas.

Killed with his son in a drone strike

According to el Sayed's martyrdom statement, he was killed along with his son, Saleh, sometime "in Rajab 1433H [May-June 2012] via the bombing of an unmanned drone." Saleh, who was born sometime in 1993, was either 18 or 19 when killed.

Saleh had "accompanied his father in the fighting fronts and did jihad with him until Allah fated that he go with him, so he was bombed along with his father and martyred beside him."

The date and location of the strike that killed el Sayed and his son were not provided in the biography. The US carried out 11 drone strikes in Pakistan's tribal agency of North Waziristan in the months of May and June 2012.

The US launched an airstrike in Pakistan's Taliban-controlled tribal agency of North Waziristan today, killing five "militants" in an area known to host al Qaeda and other foreign terror groups. The drone strike is the first recorded in Pakistan in nearly four weeks.

The CIA-operated, remotely piloted Predators or the more deadly Reapers fired upwards of six missiles at a compound in the Spin Wam area of North Waziristan. The airstrike leveled the compound and killed five people and wounded several more, according to reports from the region.

The target of the strike has not been identified, and no senior Taliban or al Qaeda commanders have been reported killed at this time.

The Spin Wam area is close to the tribal agency of Kurram, another hotspot for the Taliban and a host of Pakistani and foreign terror groups. The US has conducted at least one strike in Spin Wam, on Oct. 27, 2010. Two "militants" were killed in the attack.

Today's strike broke a 26-day pause in the attacks in Pakistan; the last strike was on Jan. 10. The US has launched eight drone strikes in Pakistan so far this year.

Four senior and midlevel al Qaeda and Taliban leaders are reported to have been killed in the eight strikes since the beginning of 2013. The US killed Mullah Nazir, the leader of a Taliban group in South Waziristan who was closely allied with Bahadar, al Qaeda, and the Afghan Taliban, in a strike on Jan. 3. In a second strike on Jan. 3, the US killed Faisal Khan, a Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan commander. In one of two strikes on Jan. 6, the US killed Wali Mohammed, a Taliban commander who is said to have directed suicide operations for the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan. And in one of the two strikes on Jan. 8, an al Qaeda leader known as Sheikh Yasin Al Kuwaiti is reported to have been killed.

Last year, the US launched 46 strikes in Pakistan, according to data compiled by The Long War Journal. In 2011, the US launched 64 strikes; in 2010, when the program was at its peak, there were 117 strikes.

The program was ramped up by President George W. Bush in the summer of 2008 (35 strikes were launched that year) and continued under President Barack Obama after he took office in 2009 (53 strikes that year). From 2004-2007, only 10 strikes were recorded. Although some of al Qaeda's top leaders have been killed in drone strikes since the program began in 2004, al Qaeda has been able to replace those lost in the attacks. [For data on the strikes, see LWJ reports, Charting the data for US airstrikes in Pakistan, 2004 - 2013; and Senior al Qaeda and Taliban leaders killed in US airstrikes in Pakistan, 2004 - 2013.]

The US has targeted al Qaeda's top leaders and its external operations network, and the assortment of Taliban and Pakistani jihadist groups operating in the region. The strikes have largely been confined to a small kill box consisting of North and South Waziristan. Of the 333 strikes recorded since 2004, 316, or 95%, have taken place in the two tribal agencies.

Sources:

5 killed as U.S. drone strikes in NW Pakistan, Xinhua
US drone strikes kill five in North Waziristan, Geo News
Suspected US drone kills three in North Waziristan, Dawn

Officials from several countries are said to be trying to find two members of Hezbollah alleged to be behind the Burgas terror attack last July. On Feb. 5, Bulgaria's Interior Minister Tsvetan Tsvetanov announced that the identity of three of those involved in the Burgas terror attack was known and that at least two of them are members of Hezbollah. While the real names of the two living suspects have not yet been released, authorities believe that they are now living in Lebanon.

In an interview on Feb. 6, Tsvetanov provided new details on the attack that killed five Israeli tourists and a Bulgarian national. According to Tsvetanov, the three members of the cell flew from Beirut to Warsaw before taking a train to Bulgaria, the New York Times reported. Although the two living suspects entered Europe on genuine Canadian and Australian passports, in Bulgaria they used forged driver's licenses that were created by the "same source" in Lebanon, according to Europol.

Tsvetanov also appeared to confirm Europol's claim that the attack was not intended to be a suicide bombing, but rather that the cell planned to blow the bus up as it was traveling to a hotel near the airport.

After the bombing, according to Tsvetanov, the two remaining members of the cell fled to Romania over land, and then flew to Turkey before returning to Lebanon. One of the two Hezbollah members is said to have lived in Lebanon since 2006, while the other had been living there since 2010.

According to a former senior Western official, Bulgarian officials learned of the Australian national, who has been described as a "bombmaker of Lebanese descent," in September 2012 after a tip from a European intelligence agency. The suspect who used the Canadian passport is said have been born in Lebanon, and moved to Canada at the age of eight, at which point he gained citizenship. Canada's Immigration Minister on Wednesday said that the suspect "has [not] been a habitual resident in Canada since the age of 12."

In an interview with NOW on Wednesday, Bulgaria's Foreign Minister Nikolay Mladenov admitted that "[t]here are a number of findings that are still classified." When asked whether the real names of the suspects will be released, Mladenov said that "[a]t this stage, this is still part of the ongoing investigation."

On Feb. 5, Hezbollah's Deputy Security General Sheikh Naim Qassem appeared to dismiss the Bulgarian government's investigation, as he said: "All these accusations against Hezbollah will have no effect, and do not change the facts or realities on the ground." Qassem also accused Israel of "running a campaign of global terror against Hezbollah."

Meanwhile, Bulgaria's Foreign Minister Nikolay Mladenov has countered those who have questioned the decision to publicly blame Hezbollah. "If Bulgaria did not have enough arguments to announce yesterday that the traces in this attack lead to Hezbollah's military wing, we would not have done it," Mladenov said.

The European Union is expected to consider adding Hezbollah to its list of terror organizations in the near future. On Feb. 6, a spokesman for German Chancellor Angela Merkel said: "If the evidence proves to be true, that Hezbollah is indeed responsible for this despicable attack, then consequences will have to follow."

While many believe that the Bulgarian investigation will serve as a catalyst for the European Union to designate Hezbollah as a terror organization, some diplomats say that the EU may not follow through, according to Agence France Presse. Interestingly, in her statement after Bulgaria announced that Hezbollah was behind the attack, Catherine Ashton, the European Union's high representative for foreign policy, failed to directly mention Hezbollah as she merely said that "the implications of the investigation need to be assessed seriously."

Some observers believe that the EU will only designate Hezbollah's military wing, at best, despite the fact that the aforementioned Deputy Security General of Hezbollah Naim Qassem has publicly admitted that "Hezbollah has a single leadership.... All political, social and jihad work is tied to the decisions of this leadership.... The same leadership that directs the parliamentary and government work also leads jihad actions in the struggle against Israel."

The Burgas attack

While Bulgaria's Interior Minister said that the bombing was "a deliberate attack," Israeli officials quickly pointed the finger at Iran and Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's soon declared: "I know based on absolutely rock-solid intelligence that this is Hezbollah and this is something that Iran knows about very, very well."

Past Iranian and Hezbollah attacks

While the recent uptick in attempted plots is noteworthy, Iran and Hezbollah have a notorious history of attempting and carrying out attacks against Jews and Israelis abroad.

In 2006, arrest warrants were issued for a number of Iranian officials for their roles in the AMIA attack, including former President Hashemi-Rafsanjani, former Intelligence Minister Ali Fallahian and former Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Velayati. In November 2007, INTERPOL upheld a decision to issue Red Notices for six individuals tied to the 1994 bombing: Imad Fayez Moughnieh, Ali Fallahijan, Mohsen Rabbani, Ahmad Reza Asghari, Ahmad Vahidi and Mohsen Rezai.

Salah Abdul Hadi Jadullah, from his martyrdom tape. Image from the SITE Intelligence Group..

Yesterday, a video biography of one of the two members of the Mujahideen Shura Council in the Environs of Jerusalem (MSC) who led the June 18, 2012 cross-border attack was posted on jihadist forums. In that attack, one Israeli civilian and at least two terrorists were killed after the MSC bombed and then opened fire on vehicles carrying construction workers near Israel's border with Egypt.

The nearly 25-minute video, which focuses on the Egyptian member of the cell, Khalid Salah Abdul Hadi Jadullah (a.k.a. Abu Salah al-Masri), is the first episode in a series called "The Journey of Martyrdom," according to the SITE Intelligence Group, which obtained and translated the video.

The narrator of the video claims that "[t]he Ummah [Muslim community] is in dire need today to study the biography of its martyred heroes, and it is in dire need to listen to the advice of its trustworthy sons."

According to the narrator, Jadullah grew up in the Marsa Matrouh governorate in Egypt, and following his father's death in 2004, he "decided to memorize the Book of Allah." Over time, "the love of jihad was deep in his limbs and he couldn't wait for the day when his feet stepped upon the battlefields," the narrator claims.

According to the biography, Jadullah fought in the Libyan revolution against Moammar Qadaffi. However, after being injured in his left leg, he returned to Egypt. "[H]is dream of martyrdom in the Cause of Allah on the Libyan soil had ended, and he was very sad and began searching for a new place for that martyrdom that always captivated his soul and body," the narrator claims. Upon his return to Egypt, Jadullah joined the MSC, "which found in him love and unprecedented longing to fight the Jews and achieve martyrdom."

After the narrator and other members of the MSC praise Jadullah, he is seen reading his will. In it, Jadullah, who is shown with two al Qaeda flags, two hand grenades, and an assault rifle, says that the solution to Ummah's problems "is through jihad in the Cause of Allah and with the Shariah of Allah to rule in the countries and among the people."

"Don't listen to the callers to democracy and idolatrous elections, for they are either ignorant or apostate traitors," he says.

Jadullah also slams Hamas, the ruling party in the Gaza Strip, for "changing the Shariah, implementing man-made laws, preventing jihad in the Cause of Allah, and pursuing and apprehending the Salafist mujahideen." He goes on to urge Salafi jihadists in the Gaza Strip to continue on their path "no matter what Hamas does against you."

The narrator concludes the video by saying that the story of Jadullah should act as a motivator for "the sons of the Ummah in general and the sons of Egypt in particular to incline towards their monotheist brothers who fight the enemies of the religion, seeking to liberate Muslim lands and implement the Shariah of the Lord of the Worlds." In addition, he says that "[t]here is no glory without jihad, and there is no living except that of the hereafter."

Mujahideen Shura Council in the Environs of Jerusalem

The Mujahideen Shura Council in the Environs of Jerusalem (MSC) is a consolidation of a number of Salafi jihadist groups operating in the Gaza Strip including, but not limited to: Tawhid and Jihad Group in Jerusalem, and Ansar al Sunnah. Sheikh Anas Abdul Rahman, one of the group's leaders, has said that the group aims to "fight the Jews for the return of Islam's rule, not only in Palestine, but throughout the world."

The MSC has taken responsibility for a number of rocket attacks against Israel as well as the June 18, 2012 attack that killed one Israeli civilian. In November 2012, the group carried out joint rocket attacks with the Army of Islam. Following the institution of a ceasefire that ended Israel's Operation Pillar of Defense, the MSC said that they were not truly a party to the ceasefire.

In July, the MSC released a 38-minute-long video in which it said that the June attack was "a gift to our brothers in Qaedat al Jihad and Sheikh Zawahiri" and retaliation for the death of Osama bin Laden. On Oct. 22, the MSC released a 32-minute-long video detailing some of its rocket attacks against Israel and threatening to "fight you [Israel] as long as we hold...weapons in our hands."

In 2012, the Israeli Air Force targeted a number of MSC members. On Oct. 7, the IDF killed Tala'at Halil Muhammad Jarbi, a "global jihad operative," and Abdullah Muhammad Hassan Maqawai, a member of the MSC. Maqawai was likely a former member of Palestinian Islamic Jihad. On Oct. 13, Israel killed Abu al Walid al Maqdisi, the former emir of the Tawhid and Jihad Group in Jerusalem, and Ashraf al Sabah, the former emir of Ansar al Sunnah, in an airstrike. The two men were said to be leaders of the MSC.

Addressing the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in Cairo yesterday, Afghan President Hamid Karzai renewed his government's push for prominent Islamic scholars to issue a fatwa condemning suicide attacks. The Afghan government has been trying to organize an Ulema conference in Kabul to that end, but the effort has foundered in the face of Taliban threats and apparent Pakistani apathy.

In his Cairo address, Karzai urged Islamic scholars to follow in the footsteps of leading Saudi cleric Sheikh Saleh al-Fawzan, a member of Saudi Arabia's Supreme Ulema Council, who recently said that Islam prohibits suicide and that suicide attacks are devilish acts, Pajhwok News reported. Karzai called for scholars to issue a unanimous fatwa condemning suicide attacks as haram (forbidden) and illegitimate, and he further appealed to OIC member nations to join together in combating the root causes of terrorism and extremism.

In November 2012, Pakistan had agreed to the proposal for such a conference put forward by the Afghan High Peace Council, and plans were made to hold the event in Kabul in late January. Then on Dec. 27 the Taliban issued a statement criticizing the proposed conference as an American ploy, and urged Islamic scholars to support the Taliban, "their spiritual offspring," by boycotting the "fraudulent" event. On Jan. 9, Taliban emir Mullah Omar issued a four-page statement condemning the conference and warning that any scholar who attended would not only lose credibility but would be "answerable to God." [See Threat Matrix reports, Taliban spurn Islamic scholars' conference on suicide bombings, and Mullah Omar warns against attending conference on suicide attacks.]

Reports in the Pakistani press suggested that scheduling problems were emerging, that Afghan organizers were seeking the support of prominent Saudi clerics, and that overtures were being made to powerful Pakistani figures to encourage attendance at the conference. The Nation reported that Kabul and Islamabad had asked Saudi Arabia to "send a high profile Ulema delegation to participate in the conference," and that such efforts, even if delayed, were necessary to achieving reconciliation in Afghanistan.

But by late January, the planned conference had failed to materialize, and Pakistan's Express Tribune reported that the Afghan government's planned Ulema conference had been postponed to sometime in February, and that the agenda and date were still to be determined. The Afghan ambassador to Islamabad explained that neither Afghanistan nor Pakistan was prepared for the conference. [See Threat Matrix report, Conference on suicide bombings postponed after Taliban condemnation.]

According to an in-depth report by the Afghan Analysts' Network, the delays and setbacks in getting the conference off the drawing board are due to conflicts between Afghanistan and Pakistan over the participants as well as the agenda, and to clear opposition by the Taliban. The AAN report states: "A relevant Afghan official privy to the affair who did not want to be named told AAN ... that, 'the Pakistani government has in private told the main religious groups not to help the process.'" The AAN also said that the Taliban held its own meeting inside Afghanistan about the proposed conference, after which it issued a declaration saying anyone who attended the conference would be considered an "enemy of Islam."

Two powerful Pakistani clerics with close ties to the Taliban have resisted urging to participate in the conference, the AAN report also notes. It quotes Islamabad-based journalist Tahir Khan, who said: "'Maulana Fazl-ur Rehman and Maulana Sami-ul Haq did not give a positive [response] when they were contacted by Afghan diplomats in Islamabad.' Haq's response implied that the Afghan Taliban should be invited to participate in any regional Ulema conference. "If you invite scholars from the whole world but do not accommodate the Afghan Ulema's opinion, then the conference will not produce any result," Haq told the Express Tribune.

Haq and Rehman's responses are not surprising. Haq is considered to be "the father of the Taliban," and his Darul Uloom Haqqania madrassa has trained hundreds of jihadists, including Mullah Omar. Rehman is a known apologist for the Taliban and other Pakistani terror groups.

A Feb. 3 report by The News of Pakistan on the behind-the-scenes wrangling over the proposed conference indicates how seriously the Taliban is taking the whole matter. According to the News, there has been "fresh communication between Mulla Mohammad Omar and some prominent religious parties of Pakistan followed by meetings, during the last week, between the representatives of Afghan Taliban and senior office-bearers of Pakistan's JI, JUI- F, JUI- S and Pakistan Ulema Council."

These recent meetings have led the Pakistani religious parties to insist that the Afghan Taliban be included in the Ulema conference, the News reports. The Pakistani parties are also suspicious that the proposed peace conference is intended to favor or endorse the Karzai government without the participation of the Afghan Taliban, in which case the event would be "just counterproductive." Continuing ambiguity about the actual agenda of the as-yet-unscheduled conference has added to the intrigue, with some calling it a 'peace conference' and others a conference for the express purpose of condemning suicide attacks.

Karzai's plea at the OIC conference yesterday suggests that the Afghan government may be relinquishing its goal of having an Ulema conference in Kabul this spring on the topic of suicide attacks and that Afghanistan is instead seeking support on the issue from other Muslim nations.

The Taliban has every reason to resist, by means both direct and indirect, any attempt to curtail the use of suicide attacks, which constitute one of the most powerful weapons in its arsenal. As data compiled by the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal show, the number of suicide attacks in Afghanistan rose from one in 2001 (the bombing that killed Northern Alliance leader Ahmad Shah Massoud on Sept. 9, 2011, two days before 9/11) to 736 by Sept. 5, 2011 (when the SAIR report was made), with a total of 3,755 fatalities.

The US killed two foreign al Qaeda fighters, including an "explosives expert," in a drone strike today in Pakistan's Taliban-controlled tribal agency of South Waziristan. The strike is the second by the US in three days.

The CIA-operated, remotely piloted Predators or the more deadly Reapers fired two missiles at a compound in the Babarghar area of South Waziristan. The airstrike leveled the compound and killed seven "militants," including two Arab al Qaeda operatives and four Uzbeks, and wounded five more, according to Dawn.

The two Arabs were identified as Sheikh Abu Waqas, a Yemeni explosives expert, and Abu Majid al Iraqi. The four Uzbeks, who were likely from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, an al Qaeda ally, were not identified. The strike took place as the foreign fighters were having dinner with members of the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, according to Dawn.

The US conducted one other strike in Babarghar this year; Wali Mohammed, who was a suicide attack planner for the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, was reported to have been killed in the strike along with nine other fighters and seven civilians.

The Babarghar area is administered by Hafiz Gul Bahadar, a top Taliban leader in the region who is not part of Hakeemullah Mehsud's Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan.

Background on Bahadar and his ties to terrorist groups

Bahadar, the senior Taliban leader in North Waziristan, is known to shelter top al Qaeda leaders and is one of the most powerful Taliban commanders in Pakistan's tribal areas. His forces fight US and Afghan forces in Afghanistan. Bahadar is also allied with and shelters the Punjabi Taliban and other terrorist groups.

Bahadar has long been described by Pakistani officials as a "good Taliban leader" as he does not openly attack the Pakistani state and wages jihad against the US and NATO in Afghanistan. The Pakistani government and military have long rebuffed US pleas to conduct an operation against Bahadar and the allied Haqqani Network.

Bahadar and the Taliban maintain a "peace agreement" with the Pakistani military that allows him to run a state within a state in the remote tribal agency. Bahadar and his commanders have set up a parallel administration, complete with courts, recruiting centers, prisons, training camps, and the ability to levy taxes.

The peace agreement allows North Waziristan to serve as a base for the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan and nonaligned Taliban groups, as well as the Haqqani Network, al Qaeda, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Islamic Jihad Group, and a host of Pakistani terror groups such as Jaish-e-Mohammed, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and the Punjabi Taliban.

Bahadar wields considerable power in North Waziristan. In July 2011, a spokesman for Bahadar claimed that there were no "militants" in North Waziristan, and that Bahadar's Taliban faction has lived up to its terms of a peace agreement with the Pakistani military. But, as documented here at The Long War Journal numerous times, Bahadar provides support and shelter for top al Qaeda leaders as well as terrorists from a number of Pakistani and Central Asian terror groups, including the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan.

Bahadar's Taliban subgroup is a member of the Shura-e-Murakeba, an al Qaeda and Afghan Taliban-brokered alliance that includes the Haqqani Network, the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, and the Mullah Nazir Group in South Waziristan.

In June 2012, Bahadar suspended polio vaccination programs in North Waziristan in protest against the US drone strikes in North Waziristan. Bahadar has objected to the US drone strikes in the past. On Nov. 12, 2011, Bahadar suspended meetings with the government and threatened to attack the Pakistani state if it continued to allow the US to conduct attacks in areas under his control.

The US has conducted numerous airstrikes against terrorist targets in areas under Bahadar's control. Of the 334 drone strikes that have taken place in Pakistan's tribal areas, 92 of the strikes, or nearly 28 percent, have occurred in areas directly under the control of Bahadar. [See LWJ report, Charting the data for US airstrikes in Pakistan, 2004 - 2013, for information on US airstrikes.]

Second strike in three days

Today's strike in South Waziristan is the second in Pakistan's tribal areas in three days. The last strike, in North Waziristan, broke a 26-day pause in the attacks in Pakistan. The US has launched nine drone strikes in Pakistan so far this year.

The US has targeted al Qaeda's top leaders and its external operations network, and the assortment of Taliban and Pakistani jihadist groups operating in the region. The strikes have largely been confined to a small kill box consisting of North and South Waziristan. Of the 334 strikes recorded since 2004, 317, or 95%, have taken place in the two tribal agencies.

The assassination of a prominent opposition leader has sparked a political crisis in Tunisia. Chokri Belaid, a politician who had spoken out against the ruling Islamist Ennahda party and Salafists, was shot dead outside his home on Feb. 6. The assassin's identity is not yet publicly known.

Thousands took to the streets to protest Belaid's murder. Shortly thereafter, Tunisian prime minister Hamadi Jebali, a member of Ennahda, announced that he would dissolve the current government coalition to form a more inclusive body.

"I have decided to form a government of competent nationals without political affiliation, which will have a mandate limited to managing the affairs of the country until elections are held in the shortest possible time," Jebali said, according to Magharebia.

In response, the Ennahda party disowned Jebali.

Some of the very same Salafists Belaid criticized prior to his death have weighed in on this precarious state of affairs as well. Seifullah Ben Hassine (a.k.a. Abu Iyad al Tunisi), the head of Ansar al Sharia Tunisia, has issued a statement on his group's official Facebook page.

"We stress this to the Ennahda Movement and its government, towards which our position is known, that conceding and prostrating in such a decisive moment in our country's history will be political suicide, the harm of which will not just rebound on it but also on Islam as a religion," the statement reads, according to a translation prepared by the SITE Intelligence Group.

Ben Hassine continues: "We stress that we will never hand over the country to the boys of France and the West, even if that costs us our lives. You let down the Muslims in 1991 and we will not allow you to repeat the experience in 2013."

Ben Hassine reissued his call for sharia law to be imposed, saying that "the West and especially America and France, will never stand on the side of Islam or even the reformed kind until a camel can pass through a needle, we therefore call for a new contemplative reading of our Book."

Ansar al Sharia Tunisia has criticized the Ennahda party in the past, but Ben Hassine's most recent call appears to seek some common ground against their perceived common rivals and enemies, both domestically and abroad.

In October 2012, press outlets reported that a leaked video showed that a leading figure in Ennahda, Rachid Ghannouchi, had secret dealings with Ansar al Sharia Tunisia and other extremist groups.

Ansar al Sharia Tunisia

Two other Ansar al Sharia Tunisia leaders are Sami Ben Khemais Essid and Mehdi Kammoun, both of whom were convicted by Italian courts for their participation in al Qaeda's operations in Italy. Essid was the head of al Qaeda in Italy before his arrest. According to the US State Department and other sources, Essid plotted to attack the US Embassy in Rome in early 2001. Both Essid and Kammoun were convicted in Italy of terrorism charges and deported to Tunisia for further imprisonment, but released in 2011 after the Tunisian revolution.

In January 2013, the group re-branded its official Facebook page to mourn the death of Said al Shihri, who had been the deputy leader of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. The organization's Facebook page contains multiple other pieces of pro-al Qaeda propaganda.

Al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate claims 2 more suicide attacks

IMU commander captured in northern Afghanistan

Israel reportedly strikes convoy of Syrian weapons

Al Nusrah Front imposes sharia in eastern Syrian town

Ansar al Sharia Tunisia honors senior al Qaeda 'martyrs'

Sidelined Pakistani Taliban commander back in good graces

Ansar al Sharia Egypt calls on Muslims to resist France in Mali

Taliban suicide assault team hits Pakistani military camp

Al Qaeda in Iraq launches suicide assault in Kirkuk

Al Qaeda in Iraq suicide bomber attacks Awakening in Taji

Bulgaria to blame Hezbollah and Iran for Burgas attack

Taliban, IMU form Ansar al Aseer to free jihadist prisoners

Bulgaria: Hezbollah behind Burgas terror attack

Prominent al Qaeda leader killed in drone strike in 2012

US drones strike in remote area of North Waziristan

New details on Burgas attack emerge as search intensifies for those responsible

MSC in Jerusalem releases biography of member killed in June 2012

Karzai presses for fatwa on suicide attacks

2 al Qaeda operatives killed in latest drone strike in North Waziristan

Ansar al Sharia Tunisia calls for Islamist solution to political crisis